Bitcoin must hold above $108K or risk a bearish spiral

Bitcoin needs to keep its momentum as it approaches its all-time high, as a drop back to $108,000 could trigger a bearish downtrend, according to a trader.

“You don’t want to see this deviate back below $108K again at this point,” crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades said on Thursday, adding that Bitcoin (BTC) is “attempting a breakout.”

Bitcoin has $2.67 billion in longs at risk

“Any closes up around this $110K region would be good,” he added. Bitcoin reached $110,498 on Thursday but has since retraced to $109,250, according to CoinMarketCap data. It is approximately 2.5% below its all-time high of $111,970.

Bitcoin is trading at $109,250 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCapDaan’s chart analysis indicates that if Bitcoin falls back toward $108,000 — a level it only recently regained on Wednesday — it could trigger a bearish downtrend, potentially pushing the price below $100,000 and possibly down as far as $96,000.

Bitcoin hasn’t dropped below $100,000 since June 22, when it briefly touched $98,900 amid the conflict between Israel and Iran. A move back below this level would wipe approximately $2.67 billion in long positions, according to CoinGlass data.

If Bitcoin falls to $99,445, approximately $2.7 billion in long positions will be at liquidation risk. Source: CoinGlassSeveral other analysts appear confident in a Bitcoin uptrend. Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher said, “It’s very hard to be bearish here.”

Meanwhile, crypto trader CryptoFayz explained using a chart that if Bitcoin does break its current all-time high of $111,960, it could continue its uptrend to $116,000

Similarly, 10x Research’s Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph on Thursday that this price level could be reached by the end of July, citing strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, uncertainty around the US Federal Reserve, and the rapid decline of Bitcoin supply on crypto exchanges.

Bitcoin consolidation phases are different this cycle

However, Daan said that Bitcoin’s current consolidation looks slightly different from earlier ones in this cycle. “It is still following the same pattern where it stalls, deviates below, retakes the range and then grinds higher,” he said, adding that it is missing “the actual breakout and continuation.”

Related: Bitcoin price aims for new highs but ‘divergences’ set $110K as resistance

McKay Research founder James McKay said, “The longer we have these periodic, multimonth consolidations, the more it’s going to take us off the beaten [path] with respect to the typical four-year cyclical behaviour.”

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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