Nếu Fed thực sự cắt giảm 50 điểm cơ bản, thị trường chứng khoán Mỹ có thể sẽ tăng mạnh

The debate over whether to cut 25 basis points or 50 basis points in the US stock market may be the volatility needed for the S&P 500 to reach a new high. Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank has presented some convincing facts about the prosperity of the US stock market, supporting the view of the bank's economists that the Fed will implement a smaller rate cut today. Given the record bets on a 50 basis point rate cut in the market, this decision will cause significant volatility. Looking back at the Fed's rate cut cycles since 1957, the S&P 500 had the strongest momentum in the year leading up to the start of the cycle. Therefore, it is unusual to relax monetary policy against such a strong stock market backdrop. Therefore, when the Fed cuts rates today, it will be entering an easing cycle in the most prosperous stock market in at least 67 years. In fact, yesterday marked the seventh consecutive day of a pump in the stock market, with the S&P 500 also hitting an intra-day high. If the Fed were to cut rates by 50 basis points from the start, considering the backdrop of nearly seventy years, this move would be even more dramatic.