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Before the release of ADP data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the Interest Rate unchanged in January is 95.2%.
On January 8th, Jinshi data, according to CME's "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed maintaining the Intrerest Rate in January is 95.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.8%. The probability of maintaining the current Intrerest Rate in March is 62.8%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 35.5%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 1.6%.