Bitcoin breaks the $90,000 barrier, altcoin market is poised for action

Bitcoin broke through the $90,000 barrier again on April 23, supported by multiple factors behind this surge. Firstly, the situation regarding the tariff war is gradually becoming clearer, with the U.S. Treasury Secretary stating that the current tariff deadlock is difficult to sustain and that a de-escalation is expected in the near future.

Secondly, the U.S. president has recently publicly pressured the Federal Reserve chairman multiple times, strongly demanding interest rate cuts, and even suggested that not cutting rates might lead to the chairman's dismissal. These remarks have raised questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which in turn has affected confidence in the dollar. However, the latest situation is that when asked by the media about the matter, the president stated: "I have no plans to fire him. I just hope he can be more proactive about cutting rates."

Before this, when rumors about the instability of the Federal Reserve Chairman position arose, Bitcoin rarely played its role as "digital gold" for hedging, and its trend was highly correlated with physical gold. Now, with the resolution of the Federal Reserve Chairman's career crisis and a significant rebound in the US stock market, Bitcoin continues to maintain an upward trend, with a 12% increase over the past seven days, demonstrating its premium advantage as a liquid asset.

It is worth noting that during this round of Bitcoin rise, altcoins did not rise simultaneously. Currently, Bitcoin's market share has reached 64.2%, hitting a four-year high. Although it is uncertain when the altcoin season will arrive, we can identify fund preferences by observing the altcoins that performed better than Bitcoin during market volatility, as these coins are likely to continue their strong trend in the future.

By analyzing the top 100 tokens by market capitalization that have performed better than Bitcoin over the past seven days, we can identify several noteworthy tracks.

1. AI: Although there was a bubble burst after the previous wave of AI hype, this is actually a reflection of the market elimination mechanism. With the ongoing development of Web2 AI, the Web3 AI projects have become relatively cheap after reshuffling, and the fundamentals of the remaining projects are quite solid.

2. L1 (public chain): Public chain coins have always been a more stable choice during altcoin seasons. Unlike in 2021, funds are now more inclined to seek high-performance public chains that can truly bring new applications.

3. Meme (meme coins): Meme coins have become an important part of this cycle; they are carriers of consensus and culture. The leading meme coins on various public chains can be seen as leveraged versions of public chain coins.

4. DeFi: DeFi is one of the few tracks with a real business model. Leading DeFi projects usually have network effects and token buyback mechanisms, which make them expected to achieve higher returns when liquidity recovers.

To determine whether the altcoin season has truly arrived, it is crucial to observe two indicators: first, whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $90,000; second, whether Bitcoin's market dominance (BTC.D) begins to decline. Currently, although Bitcoin has surpassed $90,000, BTC.D has only slightly dropped by 0.2%, indicating that the market is still in a phase where funds are concentrated in Bitcoin and experiencing steady growth.

If BTC.D starts to decline significantly in the future, for example, returning to the 57% level seen at the beginning of this year, it will be a signal that funds are officially spreading to the altcoin market. A true altcoin season not only requires Bitcoin to continue reaching new highs but also needs an increase in risk appetite, with funds shifting from Bitcoin to other thematic tracks. When these two conditions are met simultaneously, we can expect to see a comprehensive activation of the overall market.

Currently, investors should closely monitor market trends and carefully select and allocate potential projects. Whether the altcoin boom is coming will be clearly answered by the movement of BTC.D.