Everyone believes that Bitcoin will follow the Global M2 chart like a little robot.

But I saw this in 2021... and it didn't end well.
Let me show you how blind trust in a perfect model cost dearly last time.

For the past few weeks, I have been seeing the Global M2 10-week lead chart for Bitcoin everywhere. Everyone is using it as a safe map, as if it guarantees the next big move.
It makes sense at first glance: when global liquidity increases, risk assets also rise. Bitcoin is among them.
But let's stay for a second and remember we've been here before.

In 2021, Stock-to-Flow was a model that seemed to perfectly explain the price of Bitcoin through its mathematical scarcity. Clear predictions, colorful charts, stories about 100k inevitably.
Laser eyes. Rainbow charts. 1 BTC = 1 Lambo.

In September and October, the Stock-to-Flow predictions matched reality almost perfectly. Prices were hitting the model within a few percentage points. PlanB had become a mythical figure.

It seemed logical... until reality hit. Bitcoin fell, the model collapsed, and blind trust cost many dearly.

Why? Because markets become more efficient.
When too many people rely on the same model, the market absorbs it, neutralizes it, and makes it irrelevant.
The narratives work... until they no longer work.

Global M2 matters — liquidity is oxygen for risky assets.
But the Bitcoin–M2 relationship has always been elastic, not a fixed rule. What do you mean by elastic?

Liquidity works like oxygen: it can ignite a fire, but it does not guarantee how quickly or how fiercely it will burn.
There are moments when the money supply increases and Bitcoin rises explosively.
At other times, liquidity increases, but the markets remain cold — frozen by fear, absorbed by other narratives, or affected by macro shocks.
The relationship stretches and compresses, like an elastic: it influences, but does not control.

Look... These models come and go. Today everyone swears on a graph, tomorrow they forget it. The markets do not pay for hope, they pay for adaptation. When everyone is screaming that something is guaranteed, it's time to be the one asking questions, not the one closing your eyes.

Liquidity? Yes, it matters. It's the backdrop against which everything moves. But no one promises you that just because there is more money, prices will instantly soar. The market does not operate on wishes, it operates on reality.

Your job is not to find the perfect model. It is not to worship the next viral chart. Your job is to see clearly when others are blind. To remain flexible when others are rigid. To remember that good opportunities do not come to those who wait for promises, they come to those who know how to navigate uncertainty.

In the end… you don't have to predict the future. You just have to be present when the world falls asleep. To see what matters when everything is noisy. That's when you find what you're looking for.