Betting on the $9,000 mark for ETH: Is the database convincing enough?

Ether (ETH) has made a remarkable breakthrough, increasing by up to 50% in just two weeks, quickly drawing back the interest of investors after a period of sluggish trading. However, with the current price around $3,730, ETH is still 23% away from the historical peak set in November 2021. Nevertheless, many optimistic analysts believe that the current valuation is just a stepping stone, with new price targets potentially even doubling.

Is it true that the best is yet to come for the world's second-largest cryptocurrency? On-chain data, cash flow, and activities on the blockchain network all indicate that the bullish trend of ETH may have just begun.

ETH is still undervalued

Despite having an impressive increase in recent times, ETH has not yet truly reflected the positive expectations from the market. According to data from Glassnode, the MVRV Z-score — a tool for measuring valuation by comparing the market capitalization with the actual capitalization of Ethereum (, which is the total actual capital invested in the asset ) — is still at a relatively modest level compared to previous peaks in past growth cycles. In other words, although ETH has escaped the "bear" zone, its price is still quite far from the milestones usually associated with extreme excitement.

MVRV Z-score of ETH | Source: GlassnodeWhen compared to Bitcoin, the performance gap becomes even more apparent. Over the past 12 months, BTC has increased by 74%, while ETH has decreased by 28%. This has widened the performance disparity between the two assets. However, BTC's dominance does not come without a cost: Bitcoin's dominance rate is currently at a historical high, indicating that capital is overly concentrated on one side. According to analysts at Bitcoin Vector, ETH is currently in a state of "being under-owned, undervalued, and preparing to enter a breakout phase to close the gap." A rotation of capital may be quietly underway.

Technically, the $4,000 mark is considered an important psychological and technical barrier. If this threshold is surpassed, ETH could enter a period of significant acceleration, according to many experts.

The perspective from Elliott wave theory — a model suggesting that the market moves in a series of 5 waves reflecting crowd psychology — is also presenting a promising outlook. According to an analysis from XForceGlobal published a month ago ( and has somewhat been validated by now, although it came earlier than expected ), ETH is currently entering the third wave of an upward trend – which is usually the phase of the strongest explosion. If this model continues to be accurate and macro conditions remain favorable, the wave peak could reach $9,000 by early 2026. This could be the final strong rebound before the market enters a new adjustment cycle.

Elliott wave analysis on ETH/USD daily | Source: XForceGlobal## On-chain data shows tightened supply and increasing demand

On-chain metrics are painting an optimistic picture for Ethereum (ETH), not just a temporary speculative trend, but backed by a sustainable structural foundation.

Currently, more than 34 million ETH have been staked, accounting for 28% of the total supply of 120.7 million ETH. This is a long-term locked asset that cannot be traded, which significantly reduces the circulating supply – a signal indicating the enduring confidence from long-term investors.

The remaining supply is also not easily accessible. The amount of ETH stored on exchanges has decreased to only 16.2 million, the lowest level since 2016. Weak selling liquidity is often a catalyst for upward price trends – especially when accompanied by new buying inflows.

And new capital is clearly returning. Since the beginning of July, the amount of ETH held by new market participants has increased by up to 16%, according to data from Glassnode. The strong increase in the short-term investor group indicates that new interest is forming – an important sign signaling the possibility of a trend reversal. Glassnode's analysts also agree that this could be the beginning of a new price surge.

ETH supply according to investor behavior | Source: GlassnodeNot only on-chain data, but also the influx of capital into Ethereum spot ETF funds reflects strong confidence: over 4 billion USD has been poured into these funds in just the past two weeks – a testament to the increasing appeal of ETH in the eyes of institutional investors.

Currently, 94.4% of the ETH supply is in a profitable state. However, the profit-taking sentiment remains quite cautious. According to the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) index from Glassnode, ETH is at 0.47 – within the "Optimistic/Hesitant" zone. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is at 0.57 and Ripple has reached 0.62 – both have entered the "Confidence/Denial" zone. This indicates that ETH still has significant room for price increase before the market enters a state of excessive euphoria – a phase often accompanied by reversal risks.

Activities on Ethereum: Scalability and Demand Remains Strong

In addition to speculative factors, the value of Ether is also tied to the level of actual usage – and this is growing in subtle yet impressive ways.

Although the average transaction fee has hit a record low – only 0.0004 ETH per transfer – that doesn’t mean the Ethereum network is "lacking" in activity. On the contrary, this is evidence of a marked improvement in performance, especially as the majority of transactions today are occurring on layer 2 solutions. To accurately assess the level of network usage, looking at the fees ( calculated in ETH) can be misleading – instead, the amount of gas consumed will more accurately reflect the actual computing intensity that is taking place.

Ethereum is continuously scaling up. The gas limit per block has been consistently raised – most recently in July 2025, following adjustments in February 2025, September 2022, May 2021, and June 2020. It is worth noting that after each increase in the limit, the blocks are quickly filled and maintained at that state, indicating that the demand for use has always been present – just waiting for the space to explode. Initial signs from the latest upgrade last Tuesday suggest that this trend is repeating. In fact, Ethereum is currently operating at or near maximum capacity, with latent demand ready to surge when the opportunity arises.

Ethereum gas usage by transaction type | Source: GlassnodeHowever, the usage landscape has changed significantly. NFTs, which were the main factor filling blocks in 2021, now account for only a small portion. DeFi has also cooled down. Instead, a new wave of decentralized applications is rising strongly, including infrastructure projects, data validation tools for rollups, automation systems, and potentially entirely new modular application models.

At the same time, the activity of transferring stablecoins and "vanilla" ETH transactions – simple value transfers from one wallet to another – is also steadily increasing. This is a clear signal that the Ethereum network is witnessing a rise in actual payment and transaction activities, in line with the ongoing price uptrend.

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