Cardano Price Prediction: ADA Rises 27% Weekly Approaching Key Level of $0.78, Liquidity Surge Hides Bull Trap

The native token ADA of the Cardano blockchain continues its rise, recording a 3.78% increase in the past 24 hours. More notably, its weekly rise has reached 26.86%, demonstrating strong short-term momentum. The current trading price of ADA is approximately $0.7736.

Surge in derivatives and spot market liquidity releases bullish signals

Recently, market liquidity has significantly increased, covering both derivatives and spot markets:

• Derivatives Open Interest ( OI ) Breaks Through 1.2 Billion USD: The open interest (OI), which measures the total value of outstanding futures contracts, has risen over 3% in the past 24 hours, reaching 1.21 billion USD (approximately an increase of 48 million USD according to CoinGlass data). This is the third time this year that OI has surpassed the 1.2 billion USD mark, with the previous two instances occurring in March (ADA price 1.17 USD) and for most of January (ADA price around 1 USD). Historical experience suggests that such liquidity inflows are often viewed as a bullish signal, typically indicating a subsequent price rise.

  

• Spot market shows net buying pressure: The net flow data from spot exchanges reflecting net buying or selling pressure shows that over 14 million USD worth of ADA was net bought in the past week. This sustained buying pressure is one of the key factors supporting ADA's current rising trend.

  

On-chain indicators are moderately improving, with TVL rising to 333 million USD

On-chain data also supports the current rise trend, although the magnitude is relatively moderate:

• Total Locked Value ( TVL ) Slightly Rises: The total locked value (TVL) in the protocol built on the Cardano blockchain has seen a slight increase over the past day, indicating increased investor activity. According to DeFiLlama, the TVL of the Cardano network has currently reached $333 million. The growth in TVL reflects the market's increased confidence in the network and long-term bullish expectations. If the TVL can continue to rise, it will further strengthen the accumulation trend in both the spot and derivatives markets, helping ADA maintain its bullish momentum.

  

Technical Analysis Warning: $0.78 May Become a Bull Trap Trigger Point

Despite various indicators leaning towards positivity, AMBCrypto's analysis points out that the current rise could be a well-laid "trap"—a potential bull trap risk is forming, especially as ADA price begins to move upwards.

• Liquidity Cluster Exposed Key Areas: Analysis based on the 24-hour Liquidation Heatmap reveals key price attraction zones (i.e., liquidity clusters).
• Limited space above, hiding a large amount of liquidity below: A close observation of the heat map reveals that there is very limited liquidity cluster above the current price of ADA (around $0.75), extending only to around $0.78. In contrast, there is a large amount of unfilled liquidity cluster below the price (down to the $0.68 area).
• Classic Long Trap Risk Emerges: Given that ADA is currently still in a bullish phase at $0.75, its price is likely to first probe the liquidity cluster near $0.78. However, once it reaches that area, there is a risk of a sharp reversal in price to fill a large amount of unliquidated liquidity orders towards $0.68. The current price is only about $0.03 away from the $0.78 cluster, which means this probing action could trigger a classic long trap situation, leading to the liquidation of highly leveraged long traders.

Conclusion: $0.78 is the battleground for bulls and bears, a breakthrough requires caution against a potential pump reversal Currently, ADA's rising momentum has achieved an OI breakthrough of 1.2 billion USD, with a net inflow of 14 million USD in spot trading and a threefold support from TVL growth. In the short term, it may instinctively test the critical resistance at 0.78 USD. However, there is a significant liquidity barrier at this price level, and a liquidation pool at 0.68-0.70 USD may trigger a rapid pullback. Investors should adopt a two-tier risk control: if it stabilizes above 0.78 USD with increased volume, it can be expected to rise to 0.85 USD; if it peaks and falls back, decisive stop-loss measures should be taken to prevent a chain liquidation. Closely monitor the fluctuations in derivatives funding rates, large sell orders on exchanges, and the overall trend of BTC, as these will provide critical verification signals for ADA's breakout effectiveness.