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Buffett's shareholder letter hides a mystery: Holding a lot of cash waiting for the U.S. stock market to crash? Bear Market may repeat the Internet bubble catastrophe
Warren Buffett released the 2024 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter on the 22nd, a long-term observer who has closely followed Buffett and Berkshire for forty years interpreted that Buffett 'seems to be waiting for a market crash in the US,' and then will use Berkshire's abundant cash reserves to layout for the Bear Market. (Background: Buffett's latest shareholder letter 'did not mention Crypto Assets'! Cash reserves hit a record high, but still prefers to invest in stocks) Dubbed as the 'Stock God,' Buffett's company Berkshire Hathaway's cash level continues to rise, reaching $334.2 billion at the end of 2024, up from $325.2 billion in the third quarter, setting a new historical high. This rise mainly stems from Berkshire's net selling of $134 billion worth of stocks in 2024, including Apple and Bank of America. Addressing comments that Berkshire's cash holdings are too high, Buffett clarified the operation of Berkshire's abundant cash reserves in the annual shareholder letter released on the 22nd in addition to reviewing the 2024 performance. Buffett indicated in the letter that Berkshire still plans to invest most of its funds in stocks (mainly US stocks), will never prefer holding cash equivalents, and will choose to own or invest in high-quality companies, emphasizing his confidence in the 'long-term prosperity' of the US economy. Stock God Observer: Buffett is waiting for a US stock market crash. However, according to Market Watch, Bill Smead, founder and chairman of the asset management company Smead, who has closely followed Buffett and Berkshire for forty years, interpreted Buffett's latest shareholder letter. He believes that Buffett 'seems to be waiting for a stock market crash,' and then will use Berkshire's abundant cash reserves to enter the market for layout. Smead said on Tuesday that although Buffett did not provide much useful guidance in the letter, Buffett did indicate that he sees 'no compelling' buying opportunities, Berkshire will continue to increase its cash reserves, indicating that Buffett is prepared for 'severe Fluctuation' in stock prices. 'Reading between the lines... unless there is a significant downturn in the market, he will not be interested in buying.' Smead also stated that the 'severe Fluctuation' Buffett is waiting for is not just a regular stock market pullback. He believes that Buffett is preparing for a Bear Market, with a decline comparable to the crash after the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000, when the S&P 500 index plummeted 49.1% from peak to trough, or comparable to the bear markets during the 2007-2009 financial crisis period or the late 1960s and early 1970s. According to Smead's observations, the biggest threat to the stock market at present is inflation, and a series of policies including tariffs introduced by Trump are exacerbating inflationary pressures. He warns that a stock catastrophe akin to a flood is imminent, reminding investors to build a common stock portfolio as an 'ark.' 'When years of Bear Market cause a massive dumping of high-growth stocks and passive holders of the S&P 500 index, this investment portfolio will come into play.' Related reports: Buffett cuts another 100 million shares of Apple, holding a record $10 trillion in cash! Will the US stock market suffer a flash crash after the election? Buffett's indicator hits 200%! Citi warns: US stock flash crash may occur at any time, long positions are too optimistic... Buffett's divine prediction! Pre-emptive dumping of Apple, Bank of America stocks, hands full of cash easily dodge stock disaster. Buffett's another divine operation! Berkshire's cash surpasses Ethereum Market Capitalization, inventory of his 20-year brilliant record of escaping the peak. 'Buffett's shareholder letter hides secrets: Full of cash waiting for a US stock market crash? Bear Market fears a repeat of the dot-com bubble disaster.' This article was first published on BlockTempo, the most influential Blockchain news media in the dynamic Block sector.