Sam Altman's Three Observations: Costs Decrease 10 Times Annually, AI Becomes the New Work Standard, Assets That Cannot Be Replaced by AI Will Appreciate

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is no longer just a fantasy in science fiction, but gradually entering reality. As the founder of OpenAI, Sam Altman recently shared his three key observations on the development of AGI, and discussed how AI will subvert the global economy, society, and human work patterns. He believes that AI, like past major technological inventions such as electricity, transistors, computers, and the internet, will become the next key milestone for human progress.

But at the same time, the impact of AGI will be more profound than ever before in technological innovation. It can not only enhance global economic growth but also potentially extend human life, increase creativity, and unleash unprecedented productivity. This report will dissect Altman's three major observations and explore how AI is reshaping our future.

1. AI intelligence is directly proportional to investment, with amazing economies of scale

Altman pointed out that the development of AI is mathematically related to resource investment:

The intelligence of AI ≈ logarithmic to the training and operating resources. The intelligence of AI mainly depends on the computing resources, data volume, and inference computing power. This means that as long as investment continues to increase, stable and predictable performance improvements can be obtained. Currently, the 'expansion law' (Scaling Laws) has been verified to be applicable to several orders of magnitude, demonstrating the sustainability of AI development.

The cost of running AI is falling 10-fold every year, and the cost of running to drive wider adoption of AI is falling rapidly. For example, GPT-4's cost per unit in 2023 has dropped 150-fold by GPT-4o in 2024. This decline far exceeds the 18-month doubling effect of Moore's Law, making AI easier to adopt at scale, revolutionizing the way production is done across industries.

The value of AI is growing beyond imagination, and investment will only accelerate the linear improvement of AI intelligence, bringing about super-linear economic benefits. This also means that enterprises and governments are unlikely to stop investing in AI because the return on investment is extremely impressive. If this trend continues, the impact of AI will permeate every corner of society in a profound way.

2. AI agents are about to rise, and companies will have millions of virtual employees.

Altman predicts that AI agents will become the standard for future work. These AIs will serve as 'virtual colleagues,' capable of performing a large amount of knowledge work and assisting humans in increasing productivity.

Software Engineering AI Agent: The Virtual Development Team for Enterprises, among which the Software Development AI Agent will play a key role. This type of AI will possess capabilities similar to experienced engineers, able to complete designated development tasks in a matter of days. Although they are not yet able to independently create groundbreaking technologies and still require human supervision, their efficiency within specific scopes will far exceed traditional manpower.

The number of AI agents will reach the million level. Imagine a company with 1,000 AI engineers, or even 1,000,000 AI employees, this will have a revolutionary impact on industrial competition. These AI agents will not only exist in the technology industry, but will also penetrate various knowledge fields such as law, finance, medicine, design, etc.

Analogizing AI to Transistors: The Invisible but Ubiquitous Revolution Altman believes that the economic impact of AI may be similar to that of transistors, a technology that ultimately permeates all industries, making our computers, cars, toys, and other products smarter. However, as AI becomes more widespread, fundamental changes will occur in future work patterns and workplace ecology.

3. AI will reshape society and may disrupt the labor market and economic models.

The rise of AI not only affects business operations, but also gradually manifests its impact on global society and economic structure.

The short-term impact is limited, but long-term transformation cannot be ignored. Altman believes that by 2025, there will not be drastic changes in human daily life. We will still fall in love, start families, go hiking, and even argue endlessly on the internet. However, in the long run, AI will completely reshape the work patterns, and people's career choices and value creation models will be completely different from today.

Adaptability will be the key competitive advantage. In the AI era, individual 'decision-making, adaptability, and willpower' will become extremely important. As AI can help humans complete more work, the key is 'choosing what to do' and 'finding one's own value in an ever-changing environment'.

The impact of AGI will be uneven, and technological progress will accelerate. While some industries may not change much, the speed of scientific research will be several times faster than before. From drug development to gene editing, AI will help humans overcome many current technological limitations and may even realize the vision of 'curing all diseases'.

Commodity prices fall, land and luxury prices rise AI has brought down the cost of "intelligence" dramatically, but the price of scarce resources may rise as a result. For example, assets such as land and gold that cannot be replaced by AI may be more expensive in the future than they are today.

Future Challenges: Ensuring that AGI Benefits All of Humanity Rather than Becoming an Oppressive Tool

Altman emphasizes that the public policy and societal acceptance of AGI will determine its ultimate impact. He believes that it is essential to ensure that AGI is an "empowering tool" rather than becoming a surveillance weapon of authoritarian governments.

Open source and individual control are the future trend. The OpenAI project aims to make AI technology more open, allowing individuals to use AI more freely. This will bring more innovation, but at the same time, it also requires a balance between 'security' and 'personal freedom'.

Economic fairness requires new thinking, such as the 'AI usage quota.' AI will enhance productivity, but will it further widen the wealth gap? Altman proposed a bold idea: in the future, everyone may be entitled to a certain 'AI computing quota' to ensure that everyone can use AI to enhance themselves, rather than just capitalists profiting from it.

(OpenAI Sam Altman proposes "Universal Basic Compute" to transform universal basic income with AI)

2035 AI Vision: Everyone has superintelligence Altman imagined a future where by 2035, everyone would have the intelligence resources equivalent to the entire human society in 2025. This will enable unprecedented levels of human creativity and bring about global well-being.

The development of AGI will change the world, but whether we can ensure the fair distribution of its benefits still depends on how we guide this technological revolution.

The article Sam Altman's three observations: cost reduction by 10 times per year, AI agents becoming the new work standard, and assets that cannot be replaced by AI will appreciate. First appeared on ChainNews ABMedia.