Translated text: "Transferred from: kuang ren"

Talking about three things that everyone has been concerned about recently:

1. Can the Ethereum ETF be approved in the near future, and what impact will it have if approved or not approved?
2. Bitcoin returns to the 70000 mark, can it trigger a frenzy bull market?
When will the altcoin season come and how should we layout and build a position?
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Ethereum ETF is the hottest topic these days. Tomorrow, on May 23rd, SEC will give the approval result for VanEck's Ethereum spot ETF. How will this result affect the market?
A: Approval. If approved, it is undoubtedly favorable in the long term. This can be seen from the capital influx after the approval of Bitcoin ETF. However, due to the performance of Bitcoin ETF, ETH has already priced in the favorable expectation (with a 75% probability of approval). Therefore, it may cause short-term selling pressure after approval (rise and then drop), turning the favorable information into unfavorable information.
B: Disapproval. If not approved, SEC will still review the Ethereum spot ETF applications from companies such as ARK, 21SHARES, Hashdex, and Grayscale in the following days. If ETH is classified as a security, its price will fluctuate accordingly. This is because the other companies are unlikely to be approved either. However, if it is for other reasons, the expectation will still exist, and the price may continue to maintain a high level based on speculation.
In summary, the short-term upside space for ETH is limited after a 20% surge in a single day, and it is unrealistic to expect continuous significant gains. The selling orders after the sharp rise have reached a new high in the past few months, so it needs to consolidate above 3500 for a period of time before there is a chance to move towards higher positions. Do not be driven by FOMO emotions to chase after higher prices.

Bitcoin has pulled back to the 70,000 level, which is the result of Ethereum's 20% surge in a single day. In addition, Bitcoin ETF has seen significant inflows again this week, which has strengthened the market. From the overall trend, the current volume is not sufficient to trigger a violent bull market and enter a new major uptrend. In the short term, some enthusiasts still believe that the market will continue to fluctuate within the range of 60,000 to 73,000. ETF is gradually changing hands with traditional crypto world holders, which will take some time. The violent bull market may not come until the third quarter. In the long term, the current range still belongs to the relay of the bull market.

Altcoin season, when will it come? This is perhaps the most concerned topic for many retail investors. Based on previous bull markets, the altcoin season usually occurs in the later stage of the Bitcoin bull run. If we determine that the current BTC does not have the momentum to start a new bull run directly, then it is obvious that the altcoin season is not yet ready. Therefore, for building a position in altcoins, my advice is to gradually participate at the low levels. After all, the prices of altcoins in general are not too high now, so it is completely fine to accumulate some holdings at the bottom. I will organize and sort out specific zones and tokens in the next few days, so there's no need to be overly anxious or nervous. When the time is right, I will provide the answer. Just like in early May, I repeatedly mentioned PEPE and various MEME leaders in my tweets, and they were the most eye-catching performers throughout May.

Finally, may everyone achieve BTC freedom soon.