The September curse is approaching! Will Ethereum repeat its historic pullback, or will it defy the trend and break through 7,000 dollars?

September is approaching, and Ethereum (ETH) long positions are starting to feel uneasy—because historical data shows that this month is often the weakest period for ETH. Since 2016, ETH has averaged a fall of 6.42% in September, often being "brought back to reality" after a big pump in August. However, this year's macro environment and institutional capital inflows may help ETH break free from this "seasonal curse."

This year ETH is strong: Institutional capital drives new highs in years

As of mid-August 2025:

Price: Broke through $4,700, up about 76% year-to-date.

August pump: approximately 25%, setting the best monthly performance since the bull market of 2021.

ETF fund inflow: In August, the net inflow of spot ETH ETF was nearly 3 billion USD.

Corporate reserves: Accumulated over 17 billion USD ETH this year, locking supply and driving prices.

Among them, BitMINE Immersion Technologies has accumulated $6.6 billion worth of ETH in just over a month, becoming the world's largest enterprise-level holder, even surpassing well-known institutions like ConsenSys.

September Hex: Historical Review is Worrying

Crypto Rover reminds that September is particularly unfriendly for ETH, especially in the year after the halving:

2017: August +92%, September -21.65% (China bans ICOs)

Year 2020: August +25%, September -17%

Year 2021: August +35%, September -12.55%

This pattern shows that the strong rise in August is often offset in September by factors such as tax selling and portfolio rebalancing.

Will it happen again this year?

* Bearish Factors:

historical seasonal pressure

The summer's pump has been too large, and some funds may choose to take profits.

Tax and Asset Allocation Adjustment

* Bullish Factors:

The Federal Reserve's dovish signals and the improvement of global risk sentiment.

ETF continues to attract capital, institutional buying is stable.

DeFi activities and Pectra upgrade reduce liquidity supply

The proportion of long-term holders is increasing, and selling pressure is weakening.

Analysts' Views Diverge

Bearish faction: believes that historical data cannot be ignored, and the September pullback is almost a "statistical inevitability".

Bullish side: Standard Chartered Bank predicts that by the end of 2025, ETH will reach $7,500, $12,000 in 2026, and $18,000 in 2027. Tom Lee (Chairman of Bitmine): believes that ETF inflows and institutional adoption will drive ETH to break through $7,000.

Key Observations

Price trend at the beginning of September: If it can hold the support at 4,500 USD, the seasonal pullback pressure will weaken.

ETF capital flow: Continuous net inflows will become the biggest support for long positions.

On-chain data: Changes in DeFi total value locked (TVL) and the proportion of long-term holders.

Monetary Policy: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy and Global Market Risk Appetite

Conclusion

Historical data tells us that September is not friendly to Ethereum, but this year's market environment and capital structure are different from the past—the influx of institutional funds, ETFs, and on-chain fundamentals may rewrite this "curse."

If ETH can hold the key support in September and rally against the trend, the bullish market in the fourth quarter will be more explosive.