From Meme Coin to CS:GO Skins: The Cycle of Speculation in Virtual Assets

As the hype around Meme coins gradually fades, some speculators who once floated within it have turned their attention to the CS:GO skin market. These former "Meme hunters" have transformed into "item resellers," viewing CS:GO skins as the next wealth code.

CS:GO was officially released in August 2012, and the following year introduced the weapon case and skin system, allowing trading on the Steam market, which laid the foundation for its cosmetic economy. After multiple updates and attempts at free-to-play, the cosmetic market of CS:GO has been thriving for over a decade.

However, in May 2025, the CS cosmetic market suddenly collapsed. The cosmetic index plummeted by 20% in three days, and the prices of several popular trading varieties nearly halved, sparking heated discussions among users. This scene of market collapse is all too familiar to coin traders, except this time they are holding "virtual gun skins" instead of cryptocurrencies.

Players who have relied on skin appreciation for stable profits for a long time suddenly lost their sense of happiness overnight. This hyped market appears exceptionally fragile; how did these skins, resembling NFTs and plummeting like Meme coins, attract numerous followers, and what kind of impact will they bring?

Making Money, A Convenient Task

In April 2025, when the Meme coin market was rather dull, the CS:GO skins market was thriving, attracting the attention of many players from the crypto community.

This all dates back to the Arms Deal update in 2013. Skins (also known as "skins", essentially graphic overlays that modify the appearance of weapons in CS) were first introduced at that time and could only be obtained through random drops in the game.

This has opened the era of wealth games with "unboxing lottery". To obtain rare skins, players gradually began to trade spontaneously. The rise of skin trading websites further promoted market prosperity, giving birth to a comprehensive ecosystem—including players, trading platforms, streamers, resellers, black markets, and data tools.

For most people, getting involved in the CS:GO skin market was initially just for the gaming experience.

In 2019, university student Mantou began to engage with CS:GO. At first, he just played the game for fun. But as time went on, he developed the idea of purchasing skins, which is quite normal for CS:GO players.

For CS:GO players, skins are not just decorations; they are more like a form of social currency. High-quality or rare skins can showcase a player's status within the community and satisfy their vanity. This naturally creates a demand for the circulation of items, which in turn gives rise to a corresponding market.

As he gained a deeper understanding of the market, Mantou noticed a significant increase in skin prices. As a cash-strapped college student, he began to entertain the idea of "speculating on skins."

His first earnings weren't much, "I initially made a few hundred bucks and was happy for a few days."

Compared to making money solely from skins, for Mantou, buying skins and playing games feel more like complementary activities. He doesn't have many trading strategies, "it's just that whenever I feel like playing, I go buy some to play." However, the fluctuations in the accessories market can also prompt him to return to CS:GO; for example, this April, he started playing the game again after hearing that "the accessory market was booming."

In fact, CS:GO and its derivative skin economy indeed have a mutually reinforcing relationship.

A well-known KOL once took the initiative to study the market economy created by this game out of curiosity. In his view, the enduring wealth effect of the CS:GO skin market is closely related to the attributes of the game itself.

"As a shooting game, the gameplay of CS:GO is very simple and has not changed much compared to its initial release." Coupled with the fact that the game developers frequently hold events to stimulate players, this can attract old players to quickly return due to nostalgia or other factors.

While attracting and retaining old players, the promotion by esports streamers has also lowered the entry barriers, drawing a continuous stream of "new blood" (mainly college students) to join, which constitutes the incremental growth of this market.

Vanity drives players to trade skin items, while the opportunity to make money attracts both new and old players to continue participating. Earning while playing has become the best portrayal of the CS:GO game and its item economy.

Let the prices of accessories soar

The price range of CS:GO's skin market is astonishing, ranging from ordinary skins costing a few yuan to rare treasures valued at tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands, all contributing to this unique ecosystem. This layered structure is similar to the cryptocurrency market—ordinary skins are akin to "air coins," while top-tier items like the Dragon Lore and Butterfly Knife are comparable to BAYC and CryptoPunks in the NFT space, with their prices constantly breaking records due to scarcity and consensus premium.

A large number of common weapon cases and ordinary quality skins are located at the lower end of the price spectrum, with affordable prices that meet the basic personalization needs of most players.

Jewelry in the medium price range usually sells for dozens to several hundred yuan. This type of jewelry often features better design, a certain degree of rarity, or is suitable for more popular weapons.

In the high-end market, prices show exponential growth, with jewelry priced in the thousands to tens of thousands of yuan being quite common. These are usually extremely rare knives, gloves, and those top-tier firearm skins that have a legendary status or are exceedingly rare. For example, a brand new "M4A4 | Howl" that can record kill counts and comes with rare stickers can reach a recommended price of around 130,000 yuan on second-hand platforms.

These high-priced accessories have transcended the category of game items and are now regarded as collectibles and investment products.

Overall, the appearance, wear level, rarity, style, dealer operations, student holidays, new product releases, and even streamer effects of accessories can all affect their market prices. Internal game markets and third-party trading websites also play an important role in shaping the CS:GO skin market.

Although influencing factors can be analyzed rationally, the fluctuation of accessory prices often remains unexpected. This unpredictability is common in both the CS:GO accessory market and the cryptocurrency space.

When CS:GO announced its upcoming upgrade to CS2 in 2023, many high-priced skins and rare stickers saw a price increase. However, just a few months later, when CS2 officially launched, many skins fell significantly in price due to changes in visual effects or adjustments in drop mechanics, leaving many players who bought in at high prices "stuck."

However, the price fluctuations and transactions of accessories seem as random and free as Meme coins, but in reality, they are entirely controlled by the game developers. The entire economic ecosystem derived from accessories needs to be adjusted according to the rules set by the developers, who hold an absolute dominant position in it.

A KOL stated, "Developers can control all the probabilities and the rarity of each skin that drops, and they can designate the trading venues." Even the display effects of skins in the game can change due to game updates. As Mantou said: "Why does CS2 have such a big impact on prices? Because developers have changed the display of some skins in the game, some look better, and some look worse."

In CS:GO, items can be considered a type of financial product that can skyrocket in value, but looking downward, the strings of this kite are always held in the hands of the developers.

In extreme cases, the jewelry market carries the risk that "developers may update the restrictions on the free trading of skins at any time." As Mantou said: "You cannot control the changes in developer policies, whereas NFTs are easier to operate in this regard."

Coin Circle Stories, Jewelry Market Replays

The financial attributes of accessories and their price fluctuations have made many people in the crypto circle exclaim, "Isn't this just NFT?"

This comparison is not unfounded; even the "play while earning" effect it inadvertently achieves aligns with the "play to earn" concept pursued by GameFi design.

Although CS:GO items can be used in the game, this constitutes a difference in practicality compared to NFTs. Mantou said, "Some of the expensive ones do look good," but in fact, this is just a small part of the advantage.

"Skins have no actual function and do not even increase attack power." For the large group of young players, accessories carry more complex psychological needs and social significance. They are a concentrated embodiment of the pursuit of appearance, face culture, and symbols of identity, which is remarkably similar to the role that NFTs play in certain circles.

Some jewelry trading websites emphasize that certain rare accessories are "not just simple decorations, but also a symbol of identity." "While they may not enhance your skills, they can definitely enhance your gaming experience and status."

In addition to the symbolic attributes of social identity, the two also have similarities in price drivers.

The KOL stated that the prices of certain items in CS:GO would increase due to their usage by streamers and esports players. This celebrity effect is similar to that in the NFT market, which also requires some celebrity influence to drive prices.

The celebrity endorsements brought by superstar purchases can drive up NFT prices, with prices potentially skyrocketing hundreds or even thousands of times within a short period. However, once market sentiment shifts, liquidity tightens, or negative news arises about the project itself, NFT prices may plummet dramatically in a short time, resulting in significant losses for high-level buyers.

Coincidentally, after the collapse of CS:GO skins, the cryptocurrency and Meme coin markets have quietly warmed up again. Ethereum's 7-day increase is nearly 40%, surpassing $2500, and several established Meme coins have also rebounded. Some even speculate that funds are circulating between different virtual assets, creating an alternative "vampire effect." Although this cannot be directly verified, this coincidence of fund movement has become a topic of conversation in the crypto community during leisure times.

Opportunities and risks always go hand in hand. Before May, CS:GO players who had been steadily profiting for a while faced this unprecedented price collapse.

The 50,000 RMB that Mantou earned from the appreciation of accessories has vanished overnight, turning into a loss of 70,000. When discussing his views on this downturn, he, who has "played in the crypto space for a long time," appeared quite calm and believed that compared to the previous declines that felt like "a dull knife cutting flesh" with low trading volumes, this drop, although significant, had decent trading volume. If the accessories market can attract more attention and gradually recover, it should be a good thing.

After all, the story of virtual asset speculation will never end, from Meme coins to CS:GO skins. The market, emotions, greed, and fear are always cycling through different tracks.

The only constant is that financial freedom is always out of reach, and there will always be someone to take over at a high position.