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- Gate July 2025 Transparency Report:
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is BTC heading towards $123,000 or falling below $112,000?
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently at a critical crossroads. The current price is around $117,000, with a decline of less than 1% in the past 24 hours, and a market capitalization of $2.32 trillion. The technical chart shows that BTC is consolidating above $116,000, and the narrowing wedge indicates that significant fluctuation is imminent. Traders and investors are closely following whether BTC will break through $123,000 or fall below the $112,000 support.
Technical Analysis: Wedge Contraction, Major Market Movement Approaching
The 50-period SMA is located at $117,462, which is the direct resistance level for a short-term rebound.
RSI is at 51, having rebounded from the oversold area, indicating that momentum is shifting.
MACD has become flat after a previous bearish trend, indicating that market sentiment is shifting from bearish to neutral.
If BTC falls below 116,078 USD, it may quickly test the support at 114,650 USD and 112,680 USD; on the other hand, if it breaks through 118,047 USD, there will be a chance to surge towards 120,374 USD or even 123,777 USD.
Institutional Actions: Continuous Inflow of Funds
Amdax launched the Bitcoin treasury AMBTS BV, planning to control 1% of the total BTC supply, valued at over $24 billion, and listed on the pan-European exchange in Amsterdam.
Saylor's Strategy company has increased its holdings by 155 BTC (worth 18 million USD), bringing the total holdings to 628,946 coins, with a market capitalization of 74 billion USD and unrealized gains of nearly 28 billion USD.
Currently, institutions and enterprises collectively control over 10% of the Bitcoin supply, indicating that the long-term bullish signal remains strong.
Macroeconomic Factors: Cautious Sentiment Ahead of the Federal Reserve Meeting
Market sentiment has become cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole:
This week, 567 million USD of cryptocurrency long positions have been liquidated.
The financing interest rate turning negative suggests an increased short-term downside risk.
Powell may discuss inflation and a weak labor market, but it is unlikely he will confirm a rate cut in September.
These factors may become catalysts for short-term BTC fluctuations.
Key Price Levels and Possible Trends
Bearish scenario: falls below 116,078 USD → tests 114,650 USD and 112,680 USD
Bullish scenario: Break through $118,047 → Challenge $120,374 and $123,777
Long-term potential: If it breaks through the resistance zone and continues with institutional buying, BTC is expected to reach 130,000 USD or even higher in the coming months.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is at a critical moment of tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Technical indicators show that a big market movement is approaching, and institutional funds along with macro policies will be key factors in determining the direction. Investors should closely follow the two major thresholds of $116,000 and $118,000, as a breakthrough or a fall could trigger significant fluctuations. For more real-time market data and in-depth analysis, please follow the official Gate platform.