The essence of trading: be true to what you see, discard the imagination.

"Trade what you see, not what you think" - this statement does not deny the importance of judgment in trading, but rather establishes a key "objective red line" for traders: trading decisions should be anchored in the facts presented by the market, rather than indulging in self-constructed subjective logic.

Some may be confused: if we do not first determine the market direction, how can we talk about trading? Here, it is necessary to clarify the essential difference of "judgment": what is "seen" is an objective inference based on quantifiable facts such as chart patterns, price breakthroughs, and changes in volume; while what is "thought" is a subjective speculation based solely on experience, obsession, or even emotions, after stripping away the facts.

A practical example: A friend enters a long position based on the signal of an upward channel on the daily chart, which is a reasonable operation after "seeing the trend fact"; however, when the price breaks below the lower edge of the channel—this clear signal of trend reversal appears, regardless of whether the account has floating profits or losses, and regardless of whether one hopes for "the next big rise on the monthly chart," one should decisively close the position. This is the execution logic of "being loyal to what is seen." Conversely, if one ignores the fact of the channel break and stubbornly adheres to the subjective judgment that "the monthly chart is still bullish," it essentially confuses the trading cycle and replaces market reality with "conjecture."

In reality, most traders often fall into the "prediction obsession": always trying to outline the future trajectory of the market in advance, and even when market signals contradict their own judgments, they actively filter out unfavorable information, falling into a "self-persuasion" trap. For example, when negative news is announced, but the market rises against the trend—at this time, "price increase" is a clear objective fact, but many people will ignore this core signal and instead cling to the inherent belief that "the news should be negative," searching everywhere for reasons to validate their own views, using subjective logic to resist market reality.

The consequences of this approach are often extremely destructive: perhaps one can survive a fluctuation by sheer luck, but in leveraged trading, even a slight price deviation can trigger violent fluctuations in account equity. The risks accumulated through repeated "self-deception" will eventually erupt in a certain market reversal, plunging the account into an abyss.

In fact, traders do not have to completely eliminate predictions—what is key is to set a "stop-loss baseline" for the "predictions": no matter what model or strategy is used to establish positions, specific and quantifiable exit criteria must be set in advance: for example, if the price falls below a certain moving average, reaches a specific support level, or if indicators show clear divergence. Once the market triggers this standard, it means that "the previous judgment has been falsified by facts"; at this point, the only correct choice is to let go of subjective beliefs and recognize mistakes in a timely manner.

Ultimately, the market never cares about the "thoughts" of traders, only respects the "facts." Only by making objective market conditions the core of decision-making and replacing rigid subjective judgments with flexible response strategies can one find a lasting foothold in the uncertain trading market.