#美联储人事变动与政策预期# Looking at the changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, I can't help but think back to the financial crisis of 2008. The situation at that time feels like it is right in front of me: market turmoil, skyrocketing unemployment rates, and the Fed had to take unprecedented easing measures. Now, with the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data falling short of expectations, and with Kugler about to resign, the market is once again catching a whiff of interest rate cuts.

This periodic change always fills me with emotions. Every policy shift contains the pulse of the economy behind it. I have witnessed multiple personnel changes at the Fed, each time triggering market speculation and fluctuations. Now it seems that history is about to repeat itself.

However, we cannot be blindly optimistic. Past experiences tell us that there is often a gap between market expectations and actual policies. An 80.3% probability of interest rate cuts sounds high, but the Fed's decisions do not rely solely on one or two data points.

Looking back at history, we can see that the Fed's policy adjustments are typically a gradual process. Even during times of crisis, they tend to act cautiously. Therefore, I advise everyone to remain calm and closely monitor future economic data and the speeches of Fed officials.

In this era filled with uncertainty, it is more important than ever to remain vigilant and flexible. After all, as we have learned from past projects, excessive optimism or pessimism can pose risks. Let us continue to observe and guide our decisions with the wisdom of history.