#美联储人事变动与政策预期# The latest US non-farm payroll data is indeed surprising. In July, only 73,000 jobs were added, far below market expectations, and the downward revisions of the previous two months have significantly increased concerns about the economic outlook. At the same time, Federal Reserve Board member Quarles is about to resign, which gives Trump the opportunity to place loyalists, potentially affecting the direction of future monetary policy.

These factors combined have led to a sharp increase in market expectations for a rate cut in September. CME data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged from 41.3% to 80.3%. This significant change in expectations is likely to have a substantial impact on market sentiment and asset prices.

From the on-chain data, it is necessary to closely monitor the changes in the flow of large capital. If institutional investors begin to increase their allocation to cryptocurrencies, significant inflow signals may appear. At the same time, be wary of potential arbitrage opportunities, as the market's relative value judgment between the US dollar and cryptocurrencies may experience significant fluctuations.