When discussing the possible trends of the Crypto Assets market in 2025, we need to break out of conventional thinking and use reflexive thinking to predict market movements.

First of all, it is widely expected that the fourth quarter of 2023 will see a resurgence of altcoin explosions similar to the end of 2017. However, it is precisely because of this consensus that things may go awry. The market often does not develop according to the expectations of the majority. On the contrary, if the fourth quarter shows sideways movement or even enters a bear market, it would rather align with the reflexivity characteristic of the market.

Secondly, historical data shows that the third quarter rarely sees altcoin seasons. Therefore, the third quarter of 2023 may become an unexpectedly significant upward phase, during which altcoins may initiate. This counterintuitive trend aligns more with the unpredictability of the market.

Investors should be wary that clinging to past experiences may lead to missing the best exit opportunities. Many people look forward to a repeat of the market conditions in the fourth quarter of 2017, and this obsession may cause them to overlook the actual direction of the market.

In addition, the market's widespread expectation of interest rate cuts in 2024 may have been fully priced in, and the actual impact may be limited. The core factor truly driving market trends is the mean reversion of the fundamentals, which means that prices will eventually revert to their intrinsic value.

The sentiment aspect is secondary, as the greed index rose to 95 at the end of 2022, marking a mid-term peak, but it does not necessarily represent the final top. The news aspect usually serves to supplement the sentiment.

It is worth noting that in a bull market, positive news often emerges endlessly, such as ETF approvals, halving, AI development, tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), national policies, etc., but the market reaction may be limited. This again illustrates that one should not overly rely on a single piece of positive news.

In summary, the priority of the factors affecting the market is: fundamentals (mean reversion) > sentiment > news. Investors should consider these factors comprehensively, rather than sticking to a single viewpoint or past experiences, in order to better seize the bullish opportunities that may arise in 2025.