Inflation Cooling and Monetary Policy Caution, Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Face Key Resistance

Despite recent inflation data showing signs of cooling, Federal Reserve officials have indicated that more time is needed to observe the economic situation. The majority of views lean towards considering interest rate cuts later this fall or later this year. This uncertainty stems from reliance on future data and a cautious assessment of external factors. Although there are signs of a slowdown in the labor market, no clear signs of weakness have yet emerged, providing support for the Federal Reserve's patient wait.

On Thursday, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher, led by technology and bank stocks. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, and the dollar index declined for the fourth consecutive day, reaching its lowest level in three years. Market expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have strengthened.

The Hong Kong government has released the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0", marking a new stage of "institutionalization, scaling, and globalization" for digital assets in Hong Kong. The policy clearly states that a licensing system for stablecoins will be implemented by 2025, promoting the tokenization of real-world assets, and providing tax incentives for tokenized ETFs and funds to attract international capital.

The price of Bitcoin has rebounded nearly 10% recently from $98,188, but the upward momentum has slowed. Today marks the expiration of the largest Bitcoin and Ethereum options this year, which may intensify short-term volatility. Analysis shows that the price of Bitcoin is currently mainly driven by macro news, receiving strong support in the range of $93,000 to $100,000, but both on-chain transfer volume and spot trading volume are showing a downward trend.

Multiple analysts have stated that Bitcoin needs to break through the resistance range of $108,000 to $110,000 and turn it into support in order to enter a new price discovery phase. Currently, the MVRV ratio is 2.22, below the historically overvalued range, indicating that there is still room for upside. If the MVRV momentum strengthens, coupled with support from ETF fund inflows, the price of Bitcoin may break through the current high of $112,000 and even reach above $165,000.

For Ethereum, analysis indicates that $2200 is the macro bottom, and the price needs to effectively return above $2500 to trigger a stronger rebound. Recently, the Federal Housing Finance Agency of the United States directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to accept cryptocurrency as collateral for mortgage assets, promoting an "home buying narrative" on-chain.

Key data shows that the current price of Bitcoin is $107,432, and Ethereum is $2,439.40. The Fear and Greed Index is at 65, which is in the greed range. In terms of market share, Bitcoin accounts for 65.1%, and Ethereum accounts for 9.0%. In the last 24 hours, a total of 89,720 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $201 million.

Bitcoin ETF has seen a net inflow for 13 consecutive days, with an inflow of $228 million today. Ethereum ETF, on the other hand, has experienced a net outflow of $26.4579 million.

The top 500 tokens with the largest market cap increase today include Dohrnii (DHN), Levana Protocol (LVN), and AI Companions (AIC), among others.

In terms of hot news, Grayscale has updated its Q3 Top 20 asset list, adding AVAX and MORPHO while removing LDO and OP. Huaxing Capital announced a $100 million entry into the Web3.0 and cryptocurrency sectors. GameStop has raised $450 million again, which may be used to purchase BTC. The Solana re-staking protocol Fragmetric has launched the FRAG token, with the first round of airdrops accounting for 10% of the total.