Crypto Market Q3 Macro Outlook: Structural Bull Run Has Started

1. The macro environment is turning favorable

Starting from the third quarter of 2025, the macro environment is quietly changing. The policy environment that previously marginalized digital assets is transforming into a structural driving force. The Federal Reserve has ended its interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy has returned to a stimulus track, and the global encryption regulatory framework is being accelerated; these three factors are driving the crypto market into a structural re-evaluation.

In terms of monetary policy, the macro liquidity environment in the United States is entering a critical turning point. Although the Federal Reserve officials still emphasize "data dependence," the market has reached a consensus on interest rate cuts within the year. Political factors are also driving the Federal Reserve towards a more accommodative stance. This expectation gap has opened up upward space for the valuation of digital assets.

Fiscal policy is also working in sync. Expansionary policies represented by new large-scale fiscal legislation are bringing about an unprecedented capital release effect. This not only reshapes the internal circulation structure of the dollar but also indirectly strengthens the demand for digital assets.

The shift in regulatory attitude is more milestone-worthy. The approval of the ETH staking ETF marks the first acceptance of yield-structured digital assets by U.S. regulators. The advancement of the Solana ETF is even more groundbreaking. The SEC is working on establishing a unified token ETF approval standard, which represents a fundamental shift in regulatory thinking from "firewall" to "pipeline engineering."

The regulatory race in the Asia region is also heating up. Financial centers such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and the UAE are vying for the compliance dividends of stablecoins, payment licenses, and Web3 innovation projects. This means that stablecoins are becoming an integral part of payment networks, corporate settlements, and even national financial strategies.

The risk appetite in traditional financial markets is also showing signs of recovery. The S&P 500 has reached new highs, tech stocks are rebounding, and the IPO market is warming up, all of which are sending positive signals. Funds are flowing back from areas like AI and biotechnology into blockchain and crypto financial assets.

Overall, the shift in monetary policy towards easing, the comprehensive release of fiscal policy, the change in regulatory structure to "supporting regulation", and the overall repair of risk appetite have allowed the environment for crypto assets to emerge from difficulties. This is not driven by sentiment, but rather a process of value reassessment driven by the system.

2. Institutions and enterprises are leading the new round of bull run

The most noteworthy structural change in the current crypto market is that the chips are shifting from retail investors to long-term holders, enterprises, and financial institutions. After two years of clearing and restructuring, the structure of market participants is undergoing a historic reshuffle: speculative users are gradually being marginalized, and institutions and enterprises aimed at allocation are becoming the decisive force driving the next bull run.

The structure of Bitcoin holdings has explained everything. Recently, the scale of Bitcoin purchases by listed companies has surpassed the net inflow of ETFs. Companies are viewing Bitcoin as a "strategic cash alternative" rather than a short-term allocation tool. Compared to ETFs, directly holding Bitcoin gives companies more flexibility and control, as well as stronger holding resilience.

Financial infrastructure is also clearing obstacles for institutional capital inflows. The approval of the ETH staking ETF means that institutions are starting to incorporate "on-chain yield assets" into traditional portfolios. The anticipation of the Solana ETF further expands the imagination space. The conversion of Grayscale's crypto fund into an ETF also marks the integration of traditional funds with blockchain asset management.

More importantly, companies are directly participating in the on-chain financial market. Bitmine's increased holdings of ETH and DeFi Development's large-scale investment in the Solana ecosystem both represent that companies are participating in building a new generation of crypto financial ecology. This is a capital injection characterized by industrial mergers and acquisitions and strategic layout, aimed at securing core rights in the new financial infrastructure.

In the field of derivatives and on-chain liquidity, traditional finance is also actively laying out its plans. The record high trading volumes of CME's Solana futures and XRP futures indicate that traditional institutions have incorporated crypto assets into their strategic models. The entry of hedge funds, structured product providers, and others will fundamentally enhance the liquidity density and depth of the market.

At the same time, the significant decline in retail investor activity has reinforced the above trend. On-chain data shows that the proportion of short-term holders continues to decrease, and the activity of early large holders is diminishing, indicating that the market is in a "turnover sedimentation period." Historical experience shows that such quiet periods often give rise to the largest market starting points.

The "productization capability" of financial institutions is also rapidly taking shape. From JPMorgan to Robinhood, everyone is expanding the trading, staking, lending, and payment capabilities of encryption assets. This not only enhances the usability of encryption assets within the fiat currency system but also endows them with richer financial attributes.

Essentially, this round of structural turnover is a deep expansion of the "financialization" of encryption assets and a reshaping of the value discovery logic. The market is no longer dominated by emotion-driven speculators, but by institutions and enterprises with long-term strategies and clear allocation logic. A institutionalized and structured bull run is brewing, which will be more solid, lasting, and thorough.

3. The new "Shanzhai Season" is heading towards a selective bull run

The current "Altcoin Season" has entered a new phase: the broad market rally is no longer, replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by factors such as ETFs, real returns, and institutional adoption. This is a sign of the maturation of the crypto market and an inevitable result of the capital selection mechanism after a rational return.

From the structural signals, mainstream altcoins have completed a new round of accumulation. The rebound of the ETH/BTC ratio, large address accumulation, and frequent large on-chain transactions all indicate that the main funds are re-pricing primary assets. Retail investor sentiment remains low, creating an ideal "low interference" environment for the next round of market activity.

But this time the altcoin market will be "each flying their own way." ETF applications have become the anchor point for a new round of thematic structures. Especially the Solana ETF, which has been seen as the next "market consensus event." Investors are starting to layout around staked assets, with governance tokens like JTO and MNDE also emerging with independent trends. Asset performance will revolve around "ETF potential, real returns, institutional allocation," rather than a wave of market sentiment driving a broad rally.

DeFi is also an important arena in this round of "selective bull run". Users are shifting from "point airdrop DeFi" to "cash flow DeFi", with protocol income, stablecoin yield, and re-staking mechanisms becoming core indicators. Liquidity providers place more emphasis on strategy transparency, yield sustainability, and risk structure. This has spurred the emergence of innovative projects like Renzo and Size Credit.

Capital choices are also becoming more "realistic". Stablecoin strategies backed by real-world assets (RWA) are favored, with protocols like Euler Prime attempting to create "sovereign bond-like products" on-chain. Cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience are also becoming key factors, with projects like Enso and Wormhole emerging as new hubs for capital concentration.

The speculative part of the market is also shifting. Although meme coins still have popularity, the "everyone pulling up" phenomenon is no longer returning. Instead, the "platform rotation trading" strategy has taken its place, which is extremely risky and lacks sustainability. Mainstream capital is more inclined to allocate to projects that can provide continuous returns, have real users, and possess strong narratives.

In summary, the core of this round of altcoin season is not about "which public chain is going to soar," but rather about "which assets have the potential to be integrated into traditional financial logic." From changes in ETF structures, re-staking models, simplified cross-chain UX, to the integration of RWA and institutional credit infrastructure, the crypto market is undergoing a deep value reassessment cycle. A selective bull run is not a weakening of the bull market, but rather an upgrade of the bull market.

IV. Q3 Investment Framework: Emphasizing Core Allocation and Event-Driven Strategies

The market layout for Q3 2025 needs to find a balance between "core configuration stability" and "event-driven local outbreaks." From long-term configuration of BTC to Solana ETF thematic trading, and then to DeFi real yield protocols and RWA treasury rotation, a well-structured asset allocation framework has become essential.

Bitcoin remains the top choice for core positions. In an environment where ETF inflows continue, enterprises are increasing their holdings, and the Federal Reserve is sending dovish signals, BTC demonstrates strong resilience and a capital siphoning effect. Even if it has not yet reached a new high, its chip structure and capital attributes determine that it is currently the most stable underlying asset.

Solana is undoubtedly the most thematic explosive asset in Q3. Multiple institutions have submitted applications for SOL spot ETFs, with the approval window expected to close around September. The staking mechanism is likely to be incorporated into the ETF structure, and its "quasi-dividend asset" property is attracting a large amount of capital allocation. This will drive the SOL spot and its ecosystem tokens such as JTO, MNDE, etc.

DeFi portfolios are worth reconstructing. Focus should be on protocols with stable cash flow, real yield distribution, and mature governance mechanisms. Projects like SYRUP, LQTY, EUL, and FLUID can be configured, using equal-weight allocation to capture relative returns. These types of protocols often have "slow capital recovery and delayed bursts," and should be treated with a medium-term mindset to avoid chasing highs and panic selling.

Meme assets should strictly control exposure, and it is recommended to limit it to 5% of total assets, managing positions with an options mindset. Given the current high risk of Meme contracts, clear stop-loss, take-profit, and position limits should be set. For investors accustomed to event-driven trading, these assets can serve as emotional补仓 tools, but should not be misinterpreted as the core of a trend.

In addition to configuration, seizing the timing of event-driven layout is also crucial. The current market is transitioning from an "information vacuum" to "intensive event release". Signals such as Trump's support for crypto mining, Robinhood's entry into L2, and Circle's application for a US license indicate that the regulatory environment is changing rapidly. It is expected that from mid-August to early September, there will be a "policy + capital resonance" market. Layout should be anticipated in advance and gradually built up to avoid chasing highs.

In addition, attention should be paid to the volume of structural alternative themes. For example, if Robinhood builds L2 and promotes tokenized stock trading, it may ignite a new narrative of "exchange chains" and RWA integration. Projects like Humanity Protocol and SAHARA, supported by verifiable roadmaps and active communities, could become breakout points in the fringe sector. Such early opportunities can be part of a high-volatility strategy, but position control and risk management must be adhered to.

In summary, the Q3 strategy must abandon the "flood irrigation" type of betting and shift towards a mixed strategy of "anchored by core assets and driven by events". BTC serves as the anchor, SOL as the banner, DeFi as the structure, Meme as a supplement, and events as accelerators, with each part corresponding to different positions and rhythms. In the new environment where ETF funding is expanding, the market is reshaping a new valuation system of "mainstream assets + thematic narratives + real returns". The success of investments will depend on understanding the capital logic behind this round of changes.

V. Conclusion: A new round of wealth migration is on the way.

Each round of bull and bear markets is essentially a periodic reshuffle of value reassessment, and the real transfer of wealth often occurs quietly amidst chaos. Currently, a selective bull run led by institutions, driven by compliance, and supported by real returns is brewing. The prologue has been written, waiting only for a few who understand to enter the market.

The role of Bitcoin has fundamentally changed. It is becoming a new reserve component on the balance sheets of global enterprises and a national-level inflation hedge tool. The inflow of ETFs has changed the previous chip structure, building a reservoir of underlying capital. In the future, the factors that will have the greatest impact on BTC prices will be institutional buying decisions, the allocation of pensions and sovereign funds, and the macro policies' repricing of risk assets.

The infrastructure and assets that represent the next generation of financial paradigms are also evolving from "narrative bubbles" to "system takeover." Solana, EigenLayer, L2 Rollup, RWA vaults, and re-staked bonds represent the transition of crypto assets from "anarchic experiments" to "predictable institutional assets." These structural opportunities will lead the next wave of capital tides.

The new altcoin season has changed. The "comprehensive bull run" of 2021 will not be repeated. The next round of the market will be more deeply tied to real returns, user growth, and institutional access. Projects that can provide stable returns for institutions, attract stable funds through ETFs, and have RWA mapping capabilities will become the "blue-chip stocks" of the new cycle.