Crypto Market Dynamics: The Fed's interest rate decision is imminent, Bitcoin may start a new round of pump.

Market Observation

The Fed will announce the June interest rate decision tomorrow morning, and the market is highly focused on the officials' expectations for the number of rate cuts this year in the dot plot. Some analysts believe that although two rate cuts within the year remain the mainstream expectation, some officials may lean towards only cutting rates once, which will affect market sentiment. If the dot plot shows only one rate cut, or if decision-makers indicate they are not in a hurry to cut rates, the dollar may strengthen as a result. Currently, traders expect September to be the time point for the first rate cut in 2025.

Meanwhile, the tense situation in the Middle East continues to impact the global market. The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, raising concerns about oil supply. The U.S. has increased its military presence in the Middle East, including aircraft carriers and destroyers. However, some analyses suggest that the market's reaction to the Middle East situation is relatively calm, possibly because investors have become somewhat "immune" to geopolitical risks and are not overly pricing in worst-case scenarios.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin has seen a pullback due to geopolitical risks, dipping to around $103,000 at one point and currently reported at $105,478. Some analysts believe that while the current price range has not confirmed a bottom, it provides a good accumulation opportunity. If Bitcoin can break through $106,000, it may initiate a new round of strong pump. Meanwhile, the $103,000 area serves as a short-term support level; if the price retraces and stabilizes, a rebound may occur. $108,951 and $110,406 are two key resistance levels; if it breaks through $109,000 with increased trading volume, a bullish outlook could be considered. There is also a view that if it breaks through $109,507 and $111,991, Bitcoin is expected to challenge $119,164. However, if the situation in the Middle East worsens further, it could damage the key support area of $104,800-$105,400, leading to a drop in BTC to $103,100 or even $100,385.

In terms of Ethereum, the current price hovers around $2,548, having attempted multiple times to break through the $2,700 resistance recently without success. Although on-chain data shows that large holders continue to accumulate, providing long-term bullish signals, the short-term technical situation remains complex, requiring a breakthrough of $2,600 to reignite upward momentum. Some analysts predict that Ethereum will challenge $2,800, which may subsequently drive altcoin market trends.

The three major U.S. stock indices generally closed lower, and crypto concept stocks showed weak performance. Notably, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS stablecoin regulatory bill, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, but the market reaction was relatively muted, with related concept stocks and tokens performing flatly, suggesting that the market may have already priced in this news.

In addition, multiple social media accounts related to cryptocurrency have been unfrozen. Several rapidly growing projects have emerged on-chain, some of which have seen their token market caps soar to millions of dollars, but some projects have already experienced a pullback.

Key Data

As of June 18, 12:00 HKT:

• Bitcoin: $105,461 (Year-to-date +12.71%), Daily trading volume $34.805 billion
• Ethereum: $2,535.82 (Year-to-date -24.03%), Daily trading volume $22.424 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC 1.5 sat/vB, ETH 0.38 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64%, ETH 9.3%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.1222
• Sector Rise and Fall: GameFi down 4.6%; NFT sector down 4.2%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 68,397 people were liquidated globally, with a total amount of 322 million USD.

ETF Flows

As of June 17:

• Bitcoin ETF: +$216 million (net inflow for 7 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +$11.0947 million

Today's Outlook

• Purpose XRP ETF will be listed today on the Toronto Stock Exchange.
• Multiple projects will conduct token unlock or airdrop activities.
• The Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's press conference will be held tomorrow morning.

Market Performance

Top 500 market cap biggest rises today: StormX (STMX) rose 434.95%, Altlayer (ALT) rose 13.08%, Status (SNT) rose 11.99%, KUB Coin (KUB) rose 6.78%, Aleo (ALEO) rose 6.77%.

Hot News

• VanEck plans to launch a Solana spot ETF, which has been registered with the DTCC.
• Multiple large holders are buying HYPE tokens in large amounts and opening leveraged long positions.
• The U.S. GENIUS Act has been approved by the Senate, and progress has been made in stablecoin legislation.
• Multiple encryption-related social media accounts have been unfrozen.
• Eigen Labs launched a new platform and secured $70 million in investment.
• Canadian listed companies choose Litecoin as a reserve asset
• World Gold Council: 95% of central banks expect their gold reserves to rise in the next 12 months.