Mysterious Trader Predicts Election Outcome, Wins Huge Profits

A mysterious trader is expected to make nearly $50 million in profit after a series of bold bets related to the presidential election. This trader, referred to as the "Trump Whale," not only bet that Trump would win the presidential election but also believes he will win the popular vote—an outcome that many political observers consider unlikely. The trader, who goes by "Théo," also bet that Trump would win key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Théo placed bets on a certain cryptocurrency prediction platform through four anonymous accounts. Although he refuses to reveal his true identity, he has been in contact with a journalist ever since an article in mid-October drew attention to his wagers.

In multiple communications, Théo stated that his bets are essentially a wager on the accuracy of polling data. He claims to be a wealthy Frenchman who has worked as a trader at several banks. Since this summer, he has been using his mathematical knowledge to analyze American polls, believing that the polls have exaggerated Kamala Harris's support. Unlike many political commentators, he has turned his analysis into action, wagering over $30 million on Trump winning.

On election night, Théo was very satisfied with the results. Trump's strong performance in Florida indicates a high likelihood of him winning the popular vote. Théo predicts that Trump will receive 49% or 50% of the votes nationwide, defeating Harris and winning six out of seven battleground states.

As of the afternoon of the day after the election, analysts predicted that Trump would win the popular vote, receiving nearly 72 million votes, while Harris would receive 67.1 million votes, despite a large number of ballots still uncounted in some states. The betting market considers Trump's victory in the popular vote to be almost a certainty. At the same time, Trump is also expected to win all seven swing states, including Michigan, which had previously been thought to lean towards Harris.

Théo stated that he bet on Trump with his own money with the aim of making a big profit, claiming that he "absolutely has no political motives." However, the veracity of these claims cannot be confirmed, nor can the possibility of any links between Théo and any political organizations or Trump allies be ruled out.

In multiple communications, Théo has repeatedly criticized American opinion polls, especially those conducted by mainstream media. He believes that these polls often lean towards the Democratic Party, producing results that favor Harris. He pointed out that opinion polls in France place more emphasis on credibility, hoping that the results are as close to reality as possible.

Théo analyzed the polling data from the swing states in 2020 and found that Trump's actual performance exceeded the poll predictions. Given that the polling results in the swing states for 2024 are very close, he inferred that if Trump can perform similarly well, he will easily take the lead.

Théo believes that polls fail to adequately account for the "shy Trump voter effect." He suggests that polling organizations should use the "neighbor polling method," which involves asking respondents which candidate they expect their neighbors to support. This method may indirectly reflect people's true preferences.

Théo cited some poll results using neighbor voting methods and traditional voting methods, which showed that when asking about neighbors' voting intentions, Harris's support rate was several percentage points lower than when directly asking about individual preferences. He believes this proves that polling organizations once again underestimated Trump's support.

On election night, Théo revealed that he had also commissioned a large polling agency to conduct a survey to gauge the neighbor effect, but refused to disclose specific details. He stated that the survey results were "shocking and favorable to Trump," but could not share specific data due to confidentiality agreements.

Théo believes that if American polling agencies adopt the neighbor method in future surveys, it may avoid major prediction errors again, making public opinion clearer.