Changes in the Landscape of the 2024 U.S. Election: Analysis of Multiple Factors Behind Trump's Rising Support Rates

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, data from a certain prediction platform shows that Trump's support rate is steadily rising, with the latest prediction indicating he has gained a 53% support rate, while his main competitor Harris has a support rate of 46%. This change in data has sparked widespread attention, especially in the financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. As the Republican candidate, the rise in Trump's support rate not only reflects his advantages in economic policy, voter mobilization, and party cohesion, but also reveals the challenges Harris faces during the campaign.

This article will deeply analyze the key factors leading to the rise in Trump's approval rating, including the Democratic Party's economic policies, the shift in attitudes among centrist voters, the impact of the absence of key political figures in swing states, and the broad support for Trump from the cryptocurrency industry, to help readers gain a more comprehensive understanding of this complex electoral dynamic.

1. Controversy of Harris's Economic Policy

Harris's economic policies are one of the core aspects of her campaign, but these policies have sparked widespread controversy in American society, especially among moderate voters.

1. Controversy over Price Control Policies

Harris proposed to limit companies' pricing power on essentials through legislative means to prevent price gouging. Although this policy theoretically helps control inflation and protect consumer interests, economists and policy experts generally question its feasibility.

Many experts believe that price controls may lead to market distortions, causing supply chain issues and shortages of goods. Some media editorials point out that such policies may undermine the balance of supply and demand in the market, even leading to black markets and hoarding phenomena. Historical instances of price control measures have failed due to poor market responses. Therefore, while this policy may attract certain voters hoping to lower their cost of living in the short term, in the long run it could lead to economic instability, negatively impacting Harris's support among moderate voters.

2. Challenges of Housing Policy

Harris proposed solving the housing shortage by building a large number of affordable homes for the middle class. This policy seems reasonable on the surface, but its implementation costs are extremely high, and its economic feasibility and actual effectiveness are widely questioned.

Harris has pledged to build 3 million affordable housing units during her first term, but the sources of funding and details of policy implementation have not been clearly outlined. She also promised not to increase the tax burden on families earning less than $400,000 a year, which means the entire project may rely on large government deficits or higher taxes on the wealthy, sparking further criticism.

This uncertainty not only makes moderate voters feel uneasy, but also calls into question Harris's credibility in policy implementation. Price controls on housing and subsidies for homebuyers seem to care about the interests of low- and middle-income voters, but may inadvertently lead to further increases in market prices, exacerbating supply and demand conflicts.

3. Attraction and Limitations for the Middle Class

Harris's economic policy is centered on improving the quality of life for the middle class, emphasizing the enhancement of economic security for the middle class through increased child tax credits and controlling healthcare costs. These measures are theoretically aimed at alleviating the economic pressures faced by the American middle class, especially in the context of rising childcare costs and healthcare expenses.

However, the long-term sustainability of these policies and the issue of funding sources remain unresolved challenges. The votes of the middle class are crucial for any candidate, but poor policy implementation may lead to a loss of votes. Although Harris's policy design has idealistic elements, potential problems in the execution process, such as the possibility of increasing the government's fiscal deficit, weaken its actual appeal to the middle class.

Additionally, Harris attempts to combine economic policies with social justice issues, such as achieving broader social equity through anti-discrimination legislation and reducing the economic burden on impoverished groups. However, this approach has raised concerns among conservatives and some centrists, who believe that these policies could further expand government power and increase social and economic uncertainty.

4. Overall Impact on the Election Situation

Overall, Harris's economic policies, while demonstrating some care for the middle class and low-income groups, have failed to effectively increase her support among centrist and economically liberal voters due to the radical nature of the policy design and lack of execution details. In contrast, these voters may be more inclined to support Trump, who has clearer positions and more pragmatic policies.

The controversy surrounding these policies not only puts Harris in a passive position in the election, but also provides Trump with a basis for attack. Trump can leverage the uncertainty in these policies to emphasize his experience in economic management and support for market freedom, thereby attracting voters who are more concerned about economic stability and growth.

2. The Changing Attitudes of American Centrist Voters

Moderate voters often play a key role in U.S. elections. Their positions typically do not lean towards either side, focusing more on the candidates' actual policies and their impacts on the economy and society. Against the backdrop of controversy surrounding Harris's economic policies, her support among moderate voters has begun to decline. In contrast, although Trump's economic policies are controversial, his clear stance on tax cuts and economic stimulus aligns more closely with moderate voters' expectations for economic development.

In addition, Trump's support for the free market and the economic measures he implemented during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, have gained recognition from some centrist voters. In contrast, Harris's economic policies are viewed as overly radical, particularly in areas like price controls and housing subsidies, making it difficult for her to boost her support among centrists.

3. The Impact of the Absence of Key Political Figures in Key States

The absence of a certain state's governor has negatively impacted Harris's election prospects. As a key swing state, the attitudes of the state's voters are crucial to the outcome of the national election. The governor's absence could be interpreted as dissatisfaction within the party regarding Harris's economic policies or campaign strategies, and this discontent could further weaken Harris's support in the state.

In this case, voters may question Harris's campaign capabilities and the party's cohesion, thereby turning to support the more certain Trump. This not only affects Harris's electoral prospects in the state but also indirectly impacts her performance in other swing states. For Harris, ensuring party unity and support in key states is crucial for her campaign's success, but this event undoubtedly increases her challenges in that regard.

4. Trump and the Interaction with the Crypto Industry

Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry is another important factor in the rise of his approval ratings. Although Trump initially held a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies, he gradually changed his stance and began to actively support the crypto industry as the market developed.

In the 2024 election, Trump became one of the first major candidates to openly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign team announced that they would accept donations in various cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. This move not only demonstrated his open attitude towards cryptocurrencies but also helped him establish a closer connection with the crypto community.

The decision to accept cryptocurrency donations is a strategic move that not only broadens Trump's voter base but also attracts young voters and tech enthusiasts who are skeptical of the traditional financial system. These voters often have a strong sense of identity with decentralization, free markets, and financial innovation, and by accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump has sent them a clear message: he supports this emerging field and is willing to advocate for it politically.

In addition to accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump also made a series of policy commitments that further solidified his position within the crypto community. One of the most notable commitments was to pardon the founder of a well-known cryptocurrency exchange platform. This commitment not only won him the favor of many cryptocurrency supporters but also conveyed his tolerant attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry to the outside world.

In addition, Trump stated that if he is elected again, he will promote the inclusion of Bitcoin into the strategic reserves of the United States and consider using Bitcoin to address some national debt issues. Although these proposals have sparked widespread controversy in mainstream finance, they have received a warm response within the crypto community. Cryptocurrency supporters believe that these initiatives will greatly enhance the legitimacy and global status of cryptocurrencies, bringing greater development opportunities to the industry.

This supportive attitude has gained widespread recognition in the crypto community. Compared to Harris, Trump's position in the cryptocurrency field is clearer and more proactive, earning him a large number of supporters in this emerging market. Practitioners and investors in the cryptocurrency industry are very sensitive to market prospects and are more willing to support a candidate who holds an open attitude towards the crypto industry. Trump's stance has clearly earned him the support of this group of voters and has boosted his rising approval rate.

V. Election Spending by Crypto Companies in the 2024 U.S. Election Cycle

According to a report by a certain organization, nearly half of the corporate political donations in the 2024 election cycle come from crypto companies. These companies influence election outcomes by supporting candidates whose interests align with their own. The crypto industry's support for Trump is not only reflected in rhetoric but also significantly impacts the election through financial assistance.

This level of corporate support further solidifies Trump's position within the crypto community and related industries. As more crypto companies and individual investors funnel funds into political action committees (PACs) supporting Trump, his financial and promotional advantages in the election are strengthened, which directly drives up his polling rates in prediction markets.

Conclusion

The rise in Trump's approval ratings is the result of multiple factors working together. Harris's economic policies have sparked controversy, particularly among moderate voters, making it difficult for her support to improve. The absence of key political figures in battleground states has exacerbated concerns about divisions within the party, further weakening Harris's support in these critical areas. Meanwhile, Trump's supportive stance towards the cryptocurrency industry has earned him widespread recognition in this emerging market. Additionally, the substantial political donations from crypto companies have provided strong support for Trump's campaign.

In the coming months, Trump and Harris will face significant challenges. They need to constantly adjust their strategies to gain more support from voters, especially among key swing state voters. For Trump, continuing to consolidate his position in the cryptocurrency industry and expanding his appeal to moderate voters will be key to maintaining his lead. On the other hand, Harris needs to find a breakthrough to regain the trust of moderate voters while strengthening unity within the party to cope with the upcoming peak of the election battle.

Regardless of the final outcome, this election will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market in the United States and globally. For investors and market participants, closely monitoring the policy trends of the two candidates will be key to formulating future investment strategies.