Yesterday, Trump made a rare visit to the Fed headquarters, publicly clashing with Chairman Powell over the issue of project overruns, while insisting that there is "no tense relationship" between the two sides. Trump not only mocked that he would have "fired the project leader long ago" but also seized the opportunity to once again call for a rate cut. According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in July is 95.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 4.1%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is 39.2%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at 58.4%, and a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at 2.4%. U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday, with the Dow initially down 0.7%, the S&P 500 index slightly up, and the Nasdaq composite index rising 0.18%. American Airlines Group (AAL.O) and Southwest Airlines (LUV.N) both fell by around 10%, while Nvidia (NVDA.O) rose 1.7%, and Tesla (TSLA.O) fell 8.2%. Bitcoin and Ether continued to maintain high sideways movement after rebounding overnight, with alts suffering significant declines, and a flash in the pan coins occupying the top spots of the decline list.

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Bitcoin initially pulled back slightly to a low of 117790 overnight before rebounding directly to a high of 119435, where it encountered resistance. From the current market perspective, the daily level has formed effective support in the short term. The big coin has rebounded to the upper pressure of the previous oscillation range. Looking at the 4-hour chart, although the hourly chart has seen a pullback followed by a rebound, the price has effectively broken through the resistance of the Bollinger Band midline and stabilized. At the same time, the Bollinger Band channel shows an expanding trend, indicating increased price volatility and opened upward space. The technical pattern shows that the candlestick is forming a pattern of gradually higher lows. If the price cannot break through the resistance area around 120,000, there is a risk of a further pullback in price. Conversely, if it breaks through and stabilizes, the market is expected to open up space above. Currently, the trend is a wide range of oscillations, with prices fluctuating back and forth within the range recently. It is still recommended to short at high points and long at low points!
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The trend of Ethereum is similar, testing up from a low of 3610 to around a high of 3769 in the evening, then immediately coming under pressure and falling back. The daily line has formed a bullish candle with a long lower shadow in the recent range, indicating strong buying support at low levels. After a series of upward movements, the hourly level is currently undergoing a correction and is in a high-level consolidation stage, potentially facing pressure in the short term. After a brief surge, the coin price encountered a slight pullback, but the extent of this pullback is limited, showing that the market's lower support is solid and is in a phase of accumulation, with bullish forces ready to emerge. Switching to an hourly chart perspective, the coin price remains above the upper track, after a rapid surge and orderly pullback, bullish momentum is re-emerging, and the bullish energy bar shows slight enhancement. In the short term, although the market may continue to experience minor pullbacks, the technical indicator MACD on the hourly line shows that DIF and DEA are gradually approaching the zero axis, and the energy bar is shrinking, indicating weakened bullish strength, but it has not completely turned bearish yet. Therefore, we will continue to maintain a high position after the rebound until the upper pressure level is broken.