2025 Crypto Market Outlook: 4 Possible Scenarios and 11 Major Predictions

Since the beginning of 2024, the crypto market has experienced a strong bull market cycle. From the approval of the Bitcoin ETF on January 10, to Bitcoin reaching an all-time high, and then the arrival of altcoin season, the market has entered a volatile second and third quarter of 2024. Bitcoin's price has broken through the $50,000 and $60,000 thresholds, and is currently hovering around $90,000.

It is worth noting that the altcoin market often starts when Bitcoin reaches a peak. The first round was Bitcoin's attempt to hit $69,000 without success, and the next round is aimed at $100,000.

It is expected that the next round of altcoin market trends is likely to occur after Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000, possibly in the first quarter of 2025. However, it is also possible that the trends from the second/third quarter of 2024 will be repeated in the coming months. Here are four possible scenarios for 2025:

Scenario 1: Bitcoin and altcoins are generally rising. There is a continuous increase throughout 2025, entering a new round of altcoin market, with all tokens performing well, repeating the trend of the past 2 months with a probability of 30-40%(.

Strategy: Buy low on high-performing altcoins.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin rises, and some altcoins also rise. Similar to the trend in 2024, there will be fluctuations upward in the coming months, but overall it is biased towards strength with a probability of 50-60%.

Strategy: Select high-quality altcoins to buy on dips, avoid popular tracks, and look for the next "get-rich-quick coin".

Scenario 3: Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally decline ) probability of occurrence 20-30% (.

Strategy: Reduce or liquidate altcoins. If performance is poor in the long term, consider selling all.

Scenario 4: Bitcoin and altcoins are generally declining. The probability of the market peaking is 10-20%.

![Year-End Series: 4 Scenarios and 11 Predictions for the 2025 Market Trend])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-f884553a5e863e9a4ac8e3416c62f400.webp(

Due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, the breakthrough of a new historical high for Bitcoin may not take as long as it did in 2024. The market's perception of Bitcoin has changed, and discussions about strategic Bitcoin reserves are ongoing. Although the actual possibility of establishing reserves is small, Bitcoin's reputation has improved.

The change in narrative is important - the new regime has brought new attention to the digital asset space, and now American leaders frequently talk about Bitcoin, making it easier to persuade people to buy Bitcoin. This regime change is extremely significant. Therefore, Bitcoin will continue to remain strong in 2025. The situation with altcoins is similar, but also different.

The total market capitalization of altcoins reached a new high in the first quarter of 2024, the highest since 2021, and then peaked in the fourth quarter. It roughly follows the same pattern ), with little difference from the scenarios above 1 and 2 (.

The key lies in positioning and timing. Although I am optimistic about 2025, it is uncertain how long it will take. While the rise in 2025 may come earlier than in 2024, altcoins may still experience significant declines during periods lacking catalysts.

As long as the bull market cycle has not ended, we should remain optimistic about Bitcoin and altcoins. It is unlikely that the situation of the summer of 2024 will be repeated in 2025, although a similar stable period to the current one may occur, but prices will still remain at a good level.

The situation on the chain is different; during a market downturn, it is easy to see a drop of 70%. It is expected that altcoins have not yet reached their peak at this time, as it is hard to imagine Bitcoin continuing to rise when altcoins are experiencing "death," and it is also hard to imagine Bitcoin reaching its peak at this moment.

Conclusion:

• Bitcoin is expected to continue rising, with an increase possibly exceeding 2024.
• The overall trend of altcoins is upward, although there may be pullbacks, the extent might be less than in 2024.

) risk

Cycle Top

Currently, there is still a long way to go to the cycle peak, but continuous assessment is needed. The cycle peak is not necessarily a specific "event", but rather a range that gradually approaches over time.

Bitcoin Reserve Plan Risks

After the new president takes office, the market will closely monitor his words and actions. Although there are positive factors for Bitcoin, completely ignoring the reserve plan would be quite a pessimistic signal. A more likely scenario is that the reserve plan will be postponed or shelved.

In the latter case: as long as it is favorable for Bitcoin, it may initially look bearish, but ultimately it is still bullish.

In short: Bullish signal = bull market cycle continues. Bearish signal = need to adjust strategy. The bull market may continue, but the opportunity is smaller.

Supply Risk

The summer of 2024 experienced a crazy macro environment, with the stock market hitting new highs. However, Bitcoin did not benefit due to some large institutions selling off.

Supply risks can never be completely eliminated. There are always some institutions or individuals holding large amounts of Bitcoin. This requires close attention, but if handled properly, these events can all become buying opportunities at a low.

Macroeconomic risks

The expected rate cut will be small. As long as interest rates continue to decline, liquidity will improve. Bullish signal = bull market cycle continues. Unless there is a rate hike/no rate cut, the macro environment should be favorable for digital assets.

The bearish signal is that inflation is rising again, which may force the central bank to raise interest rates to curb inflation.

( Token Recommendation

1. AI

Several rounds of booms have already occurred. The next wave is expected to arrive soon. Buying and holding is not recommended. Tokens that previously led this field have dropped 60% from their peak and may continue to perform poorly.

Preferred: Application Technology / Collective Intelligence / Games / Consumer-facing AI

Recommended: ALCH) game development (, Griffain) wallet management assistant ###, Digimon, Ai16z, etc.

2. DeFi

DeFi will continue to be an important narrative, but the difficulty of investment is high, as there are few tokens that benefit, and even if they do benefit, the price increase may be limited.

In terms of risk and return, DeFi is not the first choice.

Preferred: AAVE/ENA/Morpho/Euler/USUAL

Secondary choice: stablecoins/payment-related tokens

3. L1

L1 may make a comeback. It is worth paying attention to a certain trading platform. L1 has been overlooked by the market, but it contains huge opportunities ### just like a certain trading platform growing tenfold (.

Preferred: SUI/some trading platform

Secondary selection: Abstract

4. NFT Tokens and Game Tokens

The NFT token sector is worth paying attention to. PENGU is gradually recovering, Azuki has launched the ANIME token, and Doodles also has new actions. It is expected that NFTs themselves will not revive, but related tokens may return. Additionally, looking for interesting games with upcoming token releases is also a good choice.

Preferred: Pengu/Anime ) Azuki (/Spellborne/Treeverse

Secondary selection: Prime/Off the grid ) If issuing tokens (/Overworld

5. Other Narratives

• Data Token: Kaito/Arkm
• Meme:PEPE
• DePIN:PEAQ/HNT
• Ordinals
• Traditional DeFi: CRV/CVX

) 2025 Major Predictions

1. DePIN will be implemented by large companies in some way, possibly through acquisitions.

2. A certain trading platform will lose market share of the largest exchange, but not to Hyperliquid, rather to other platforms.

3. With the advancement of VR technology, metaverse tokens will be revitalized.

4. The ICO model will rise again.

5. There will be no altcoin craze on the Ethereum chain.

6. Sui will reach double digits ( at least 10 dollars ).

7. Ethereum ETF staking approved, leading to more token staking yield products and yield aggregators.

8. Famous artists will use NFTs and tokens to maintain fan relationships and provide rewards.

9. The price of Bitcoin will reach $200,000.

10. More CEOs/founders of L1 projects will follow the example of a certain platform's CEO leaving.

11. Base lost in the competition with L1, and another L1 will take its place. Solana will continue to remain strong.