Ethereum (ETH): this on-chain metric promises a repeat of the rally at the end of 2024

Ethereum has overcome a key resistance level, and on-chain data and futures markets indicate a potential continuation of the ETH rally.

Analysis of reserves on exchanges, funding rates, and price structures shows that Ethereum ETHUSD may rise by 32% to $4,541.

A similar situation was observed before the last major rally.

As of July 16, the reserves of Ethereum on exchanges amounted to 19.7 million ETH. This level was almost identical to the figure on October 9, 2024 — immediately after which Ethereum rose by 75% over two months. At that time, the rally began from a similar reserve base and occurred against the backdrop of sustained outflows. Although such reserve levels have been observed before, the correlation between July and October makes sense, as prices rose in both periods.
Net cumulative flows on exchanges remain negative. On July 16, 147,400 ETH were withdrawn from exchanges. This indicates that users prefer to move their Ethereum for self-custody or to cold wallets. This is usually associated with the intent to hold rather than sell the asset. Thus, the price of Ethereum absorbs profit-taking and maintains demand. The supply on exchanges remains limited, which reduces selling pressure.
The futures market is growing, but the sentiment is balanced.

Spot markets are demonstrating strength due to sustained outflows and limited supply. The derivatives market supports this optimism. Over the past 24 hours, trading volume for Ethereum futures has increased by 27.13%, and open interest has risen by 4.18%, indicating the opening of new positions.
Despite the growing activity, the funding rate remains at 0.0096%. This indicates a lack of strong bias towards long positions. The indicator around the neutral level points to a balance between buyers and sellers. This situation makes the rally stable and reduces the risk of sharp position squashing.

The price of Ethereum has broken through key resistance, the target is $4,541

The reduction of reserves on exchanges, sustained outflows, and neutral funding conditions are beginning to affect the price of Ethereum. ETH has surpassed resistance at $3,298,( Fibonacci extension level 0.786). This breakout indicates the strength of the spot market and confirms the consistency between on-chain activity and price dynamics.
In this Fibonacci levels chart, we highlighted the movement from $1 388 ( minimum at the beginning of April ) to the previous maximum around $2 870. Then, a correction followed to the next minimum around $2 130. This bullish projection suggests a potential rise in the price of ETH.

The current rally resembles October 2024. Back then, ETH was trading at similar reserve levels and then increased by more than 75%. If history repeats itself, the next target for Ethereum is $4,541,( level 1.618 Fibonacci). This means a potential growth of 32% from current levels. A new historical maximum is even possible.
A bullish scenario will be possible if ETH remains above $3,047. This level has recently served as strong support. However, if the price falls below $2,870 ( the 0.5 Fibonacci level ), this will negate the optimistic forecast. This will be especially relevant if the decline coincides with an increase in fund inflows or a reversal of trends in exchange reserves. Then selling pressure will resume and may limit price growth.