The New Landscape of the Crypto Assets Market: Four Major Cycles Running in Parallel

Recently, in discussions with industry veterans, a common viewpoint has sparked widespread debate: the traditional "four-year cycle" theory is no longer applicable to the current Crypto Assets market. If investors continue to cling to outdated beliefs, expecting to achieve substantial returns during a bull market simply by holding long-term, they are likely to be swiftly eliminated by the market.

The current Crypto Assets market has evolved into a complex pattern where four different cycles operate simultaneously, each with its unique rhythm, strategies, and profit logic:

Bitcoin Super Cycle

Bitcoin has transformed from a purely speculative asset to an institutional allocation asset. The massive influx of funds and the new allocation logic brought by Wall Street, public companies, and ETFs have completely changed the market structure of Bitcoin.

The key change lies in the significant decrease in the proportion of retail investors holding coins and the large-scale entry of institutional funds represented by certain technology companies. This fundamental restructuring of the chip distribution is redefining the price discovery mechanism and volatility characteristics of Bitcoin.

For retail investors, the biggest challenge comes from the dual pressure of time cost and opportunity cost. Institutional investors can endure a holding period of 3-5 years to wait for the long-term value of Bitcoin to materialize, while retail investors often find it difficult to possess such patience and financial strength.

In the future, it is very likely that a slow bull market for Bitcoin lasting over ten years will emerge. The annualized return may stabilize in the range of 20-30%, but the intraday volatility will significantly decrease, resembling a steadily growing tech stock. As for the price ceiling of Bitcoin, it has become difficult to predict from the perspective of retail investors.

MEME Attention Short Wave Period

The essence of MEME tokens is a "instant gratification" speculative vehicle. It does not require a complex technical background; all it needs is a resonant symbol. From animal themes to political topics, from AI concepts to community IP, MEME has evolved into a complete "emotion monetization" industrial chain.

The "short, flat, and quick" characteristics of the MEME market make it a barometer of market sentiment and a reservoir of funds. When capital is abundant, it is the preferred testing ground for hot money; when capital is tight, it becomes the last refuge for speculation.

However, the MEME market is evolving from "grassroots carnival" to "professional competition." The difficulty for ordinary investors to profit in this high-frequency rotation is sharply increasing. With the entry of professional teams and large funds, this once "grassroots paradise" is becoming increasingly competitive.

Technological Narrative Leap-Forward Long Cycle

Innovative projects with a real technical barrier, such as Layer 2 scalability, ZK technology, and AI infrastructure, typically require 2-3 years or even longer to see actual results. These types of projects follow the technology maturity curve rather than the emotional cycle of the capital market, and there is an essential time difference between the two.

The value release of technology projects often presents a nonlinear leap characteristic. For investors with patience and technical judgment, positioning in promising projects during the "low valley period" of technology development may be the best strategy for achieving excess returns. However, this requires investors to withstand long waiting periods and market uncertainties.

Innovative Small Hotspots Short Cycle

Before the formation of mainstream technological narratives, the market often experiences rapid rotations of various small hotspots, from the tokenization of physical assets to decentralized physical infrastructure, from AI agents to AI infrastructure, with each small hotspot having a window period of only 1-3 months.

The fragmentation and high-frequency rotation of this narrative reflect the dual constraints of the current market's scarcity of attention and the efficiency-seeking behavior of funds. A typical small narrative cycle usually follows a six-stage model of "concept validation → capital probing → opinion amplification → panic entry → valuation overdraft → capital withdrawal."

The competition between narratives is essentially a struggle for limited attention resources. However, there is often a technical relevance and conceptual progression between different narratives. If subsequent narratives can organically continue and upgrade the previous hot topic, forming a systematic value closed loop, it is possible to give rise to a super narrative similar to "DeFi summer."

From the current narrative pattern, the AI infrastructure sector is most likely to achieve breakthroughs first. If the relevant underlying technologies can be organically integrated, there is indeed the potential to construct a super narrative similar to "AI summer."

Overall, understanding the nature of these four concurrently running market cycles is crucial for finding appropriate strategies within their respective rhythms. Clearly, the singular "four-year cycle" mindset can no longer cope with the complexities of the current market. Adapting to the new normal of "multiple cycles running in parallel" may be the key to achieving true success in future markets.