May 2025 Crypto Market Analysis Report

1. Macroeconomic Overview

In May 2025, the U.S. economy is at a critical turning point. Inflation continues to decline, the labor market remains resilient, monetary policy enters a wait-and-see period, trade policies face uncertainties, and fiscal measures impact market expectations. Against this backdrop, the crypto market shows strong resistance to pressure, and the global risk asset structure may undergo a new round of re-evaluation.

inflation trend

The annual CPI in April dropped to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, indicating a continued easing of price pressure. The U.S. Treasury has initiated a $40 billion Treasury bond repurchase operation, viewed as a "quasi-QE" measure, aimed at releasing liquidity and refinancing at low interest rates, becoming an important factor supporting the prices of risk assets.

job market

In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, far exceeding expectations and reflecting the resilience of the employment market. This provides a basis for the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see approach to policy. Strong employment, on one hand, alleviates recession concerns, while on the other hand, it reduces the likelihood of multiple unexpected rate cuts within the year.

monetary policy

The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that they will reevaluate the current monetary policy framework and may abandon the "average inflation targeting" mechanism. In the future, the period of maintaining high interest rates may be extended, and they may even increase their holdings of medium- to long-term government bonds through balance sheet expansion to control the rise in long-term interest rates. The policy tone is more flexible, and there is no urgency for preventive interest rate cuts in the short term.

Trade Policies and the Global Economy

In early May, the United States announced tariffs on EU goods but then postponed their implementation. The People's Bank of China implemented a "reserve requirement ratio cut + interest rate cut" policy combination, releasing 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, which is seen as the start of a new round of easing cycle, and market expectations for the improvement of China-U.S. relations have heated up.

2. Crypto Market Overview

trading volume analysis

As of May 27, the average daily trading volume in the market was $117.4 billion, an increase of 15.8% compared to the previous period. During the two phases from May 6 to 12 and from May 21 to 22, the trading volume surged significantly, with the single-day trading volume once exceeding $180 billion, coinciding with BTC prices breaking through $100,000 and $110,000.

market cap change

As of May 27, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has risen to $3.56 trillion, an increase of 17.0% compared to last month. BTC market share is 62.6%, and ETH market share is 9.6%, with the latter growing by 29.7% compared to the previous period. Since May 8, after the total market capitalization broke through $3.3 trillion, it has been steadily rising.

popular new coins

Among the popular tokens launched in May, VC-backed projects dominate, including Layer 2 projects SOPH, B2, and others. In addition, USD1-related projects such as B, Lista, and Staketone have also garnered widespread attention.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

ETF fund flow

In May, BTC ETF net inflows reached $5.77 billion, while ETH ETF net inflows were $317 million. The price of BTC rose from $94,212 at the beginning of the month to $108,969, a growth of approximately 13.5%. The price of ETH increased from $1,794 to $2,635, with a growth of 31.9%.

stablecoin market

In May, the total circulation of stablecoins increased by approximately $7.28 billion, mainly driven by the growth of USDT, USDE, and DAI.

4. Mainstream Currency Price Analysis

BTC

The BTC price remains above $109,588, indicating strong buying support. If the upward trend continues into the eighth week, it will pave the way for further increases. Institutional funds continue to flow into BTC ETP, with $2.9 billion recorded last week.

ETH

ETH rebounded from the 20-day EMA ($2,425) on May 25, indicating strong demand at lower levels. The bullish target is to break through the $2,738 resistance level, and if successful, it may rally towards $3,000.

SOL

Solana found support at the 20-day EMA ($169) on the 20th, with the bullish target being to break through the $188 resistance level. If successful, it could rise to $210, and even $220.

5. Hot Events

USD1 ecology

The market capitalization of USD1 has surpassed 2.1 billion USD, making it the seventh largest stablecoin. Its core advantage lies in the endorsement by the Trump family, being regarded as the first stablecoin project endorsed by a president. The prices of multiple USD1 collaboration projects, such as Buildon and Lista DAO, have surged significantly.

The Rise of the Believe Platform

The core token of the Believe platform, Launchcoin, reached a monthly high of $0.36, with a market cap close to $310 million. The platform focuses on the concept of "social assetization," allowing users to automatically trigger token issuance by posting on platform X. However, the excessive support for the $YAPPER token has led to a controversy as it plummeted, resulting in a decline in the ecological heat.

6. Future Outlook

Stablecoin Bill Progress

The "GENIUS Act" passed the motion for debate with 69 votes in favor and 31 votes against, entering the amendment process. The bill involves multiple aspects such as issuance eligibility restrictions, reserve requirements, and compliance obligations, aiming to strengthen the international dominance of the digital dollar.

Ethereum ETF staking approval

The SEC has postponed the decision on Grayscale's Ethereum Trust ETF to June 1. Hong Kong has approved the Ethereum ETF staking services of Bosera Funds and China Asset Management. The market expects that the U.S. regulators may reach a framework for related mechanisms in the near term, promoting the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF.