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Top 10 Predictions for Polkadot in 2024: ETF, BTC Ecosystem, and Web 2.5 as Focus
Review of Polkadot Ecosystem Development in 2023 and Outlook for 2024
The year 2023 is a year of reflection, turning points, and innovation for the Web3 industry. As an important player in Web3, Polkadot and its ecosystem have also experienced several noteworthy developments over the past year. This article will review the major events of the Polkadot ecosystem in 2023 and make 10 predictions and outlooks for 2024.
Review of Important Events in 2023
Polkadot 1.0 officially delivered, Polkadot 2.0 proposed
In July 2023, the Polkadot official announced the formal delivery of the Polkadot 1.0 version, achieving all the functions planned in the white paper since 2016. Polkadot 1.0 breaks the island effect between different blockchains through innovative technologies such as parachains and relay chains, becoming an open and interconnected platform.
In June of the same year, Dr. Gavin Wood proposed the concept of Polkadot 2.0 at the Polkadot Decoded 2023 event - "Polkadot is a multi-core computer." Polkadot 2.0 will introduce a new resource allocation method through the concept of Coretime(, laying a more solid foundation for the future of Web3.
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) The rise of blockchain tools, multi-chain ecosystems become mainstream
In 2023, the blockchain industry has seen a surge in the release of chain launch tools. Multiple Layer 2 projects such as Optimism, Arbitrum, and zkSync have launched their own chain launch tools. These tools utilize standardized and modular technical architectures, providing developers with the ability to build blockchain networks more quickly.
The emergence of blockchain tools means that Layer 2 networks are no longer limited to the development of a single chain. The market is shifting from the initial competition of on-chain ecological applications to a more open multi-chain platform. This is undoubtedly an opportunity for Polkadot to further expand a more open and flexible multi-chain ecosystem.
Proposal of a new modular concept
The concept of modular blockchain has garnered widespread attention in the industry in 2023, particularly after Celestia's large-scale genesis airdrop at the end of September. Modular blockchains better adapt to the ever-changing market demands by improving the system's scalability, maintenance, and financial efficiency.
Polkadot, as a multi-chain ecosystem, places great importance on the adoption and development of the modularity concept. The design philosophy of Polkadot itself encompasses modular characteristics, enabling multi-chain collaboration through different parachains. Against this backdrop, the rise of modular blockchains will complement the ecological development of Polkadot.
Inscriptions and Fairlaunch Spark a New Wave
In 2023, a prominent emerging concept - inscriptions - has emerged in the digital asset field, becoming the focus of the industry. The popularity of the inscription concept can be traced back to early 2023, when BTC inscriptions represented by ORDI became a market hotspot.
The success of inscriptions is not just a new form of asset, but more importantly, the concept of fair distribution ###fairlaunch(. Taking ORDI as an example, its issuance model avoids pre-mining and private placements, distributing the tokens equally among community members, which has led to widespread community participation and driven the popularity of the inscription concept.
) BTC Ecosystem Awakening
At the end of 2023, the BTC ecosystem has sparked a nearly 2-month-long frenzy, with various ecological projects built around BTC being pushed to the forefront. From the Bounce platform to the TurtSat platform, several projects have achieved good performance within the BTC ecosystem.
The innovation of this inscription has attracted a large amount of capital and users to BTC, also stimulating the rapid development of BTC's ecological applications and filling the ecological gap of BTC. The BTC ecosystem is like a lion that has just woken up, gradually embarking on its path to kingship.
The concept of DePIN is heating up
Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network ### DePIN ( has become another hot crypto narrative in 2023. The core goal of DePIN is to deploy physical infrastructure and hardware networks in the real world through cryptoeconomic protocols, leveraging blockchain's incentive mechanisms to encourage various participants to collaboratively build this network.
In the Polkadot ecosystem, there are also many actively developed DePIN projects. For example, Bittensor is committed to building a decentralized machine learning network, while peaq network focuses on decentralized energy supply chains. These projects demonstrate the innovation capabilities of the Polkadot ecosystem in the DePIN field.
) Exploring Multi-Chain Development of Polkadot Ecosystem Projects
In 2023, the Polkadot ecosystem projects are also actively exploring multi-chain development. Phala Network brings off-chain computing to the Polygon ecosystem, Astar announces cooperation with Polygon to launch the Ethereum Layer 2 network Astar zkEVM, and Manta Network launches the first EVM-compatible ZK application platform Manta Pacific through the adoption of Polygon CDK, among others.
These collaborations are a practice of cross-chain communication and interoperability, enhancing the compatibility and openness of the Polkadot ecosystem, and winning more partners and users for Polkadot.
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) Regulatory oversight continues to strengthen
In 2023, regulatory authorities in various countries and regions have strengthened their oversight of the cryptocurrency industry. Some centralized exchanges ###CEX( have faced stricter regulatory requirements. However, Polkadot's native token DOT has shown strong resilience amid the regulatory storm.
The Web3 Foundation has publicly stated that through their communication and cooperation with the SEC over the past three years, DOT was ultimately recognized as software rather than a security or currency. This means that DOT is not subject to regulatory restrictions from CEX and does not require additional taxes, thus maintaining its liquidity and value.
) Polkadot further decentralization
In 2023, Polkadot continues to advance the decentralization of its governance and market operations to ensure the security, stability, and innovation of the network. OpenGov and the Decentralized Future Plan are two important initiatives that represent Polkadot's ideas and practices of decentralization in governance and market operations.
OpenGov is an open decentralized governance platform launched by Polkadot, aimed at simplifying and optimizing its governance model. The Decentralized Future Plan is a funding initiative launched by the Web3 Foundation, designed to support and develop innovative projects within the Polkadot ecosystem.
Polkadot's influence in traditional sectors is increasing.
In 2023, the influence of Polkadot in traditional enterprises has further increased. Zodia Custody announced the provision of institutional custody and staking services on Polkadot, Energy Web disclosed plans to join Polkadot to help large companies move towards decarbonization, and KILT collaborated with accounting giant Deloitte to issue reusable digital credentials for its KYC verification, among others. These collaborations demonstrate the application potential of Polkadot in traditional fields.
10 Predictions and Outlooks for 2024
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Chains and applications are poised for further explosion: 2024 may see a "Chain Summer" similar to the DeFi Summer of 2020, where new chain launching methods and cold start strategies could lead to a mutual prosperity of chains and applications. Tools such as Tanssi and Astar Tech Stack within the Polkadot ecosystem may play a significant role in this trend.
More "Web2.5" cases: Polkadot may see more collaborations with traditional enterprises, promoting the implementation of more "Web2.5" application cases. This will become one of the important engines for Polkadot's move towards mainstream.
GameFi is worth looking forward to: Although GameFi still needs time to develop, the Polkadot ecosystem may see its own star GameFi projects in 2024. The participation of projects like Mythical Games and Evrloot has laid the groundwork for the development of Polkadot GameFi.
Overall, Polkadot and its ecosystem are expected to make progress in multiple areas in 2024, including technological upgrades, application implementation, and cross-border cooperation. With the improvement of the global macroeconomic environment and the further maturation of the cryptocurrency industry, Polkadot is likely to welcome new development opportunities.