Potential Impact of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election on Financial Markets

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, financial markets are closely watching the developments in the election. Whether it's the historic first female presidential candidate or the former president seeking a comeback, who will take over the White House remains uncertain.

It is worth noting that cryptocurrencies have become one of the focal points of this election. The remarks of a certain candidate frequently trigger fluctuations in Bitcoin's price, while a technology entrepreneur closely related to a certain digital currency has also publicly expressed support. The Bitcoin and virtual asset market seems to be closely linked with this political and business alliance. Currently, Bitcoin's price is fluctuating around $70,000, and whether the election's direction can be a key factor for Bitcoin's breakthrough is receiving much attention.

The market has begun to make early arrangements for the victory of a certain candidate, and this expectation is manifesting in multiple sectors. The US stock market, US bonds, precious metals, and the cryptocurrency market are all showing distinct "specific market" characteristics. Recently, the movement of Bitcoin has shown a high synchronization with the candidate's chances of winning, and the election situation in the seven key swing states will be crucial in influencing the market.

From traditional finance to digital currency, traders are formulating investment strategies based on this expectation. However, political elections are full of uncertainties, and any unexpected event could lead to significant market fluctuations. Investors need to be prepared in advance for various possibilities.

The Potential Impact of a Certain Candidate's Victory on Traditional Financial Markets

1. Monetary Policy: It is expected to maintain a relatively loose monetary environment, which is favorable for US stocks and other risk assets, especially benefiting the industrial and traditional energy sectors; at the same time, US Treasury yields may show an upward trend.

2. Tax policy: Plans to reduce domestic corporate tax rates while increasing tariffs on foreign goods. This industrialization policy tendency may drive up prices of industrial raw materials and energy commodities such as copper and oil; it will also create favorable conditions for the development of technology companies.

3. International Relations: Committed to quickly ending conflicts in certain regions but stated that investment in the Middle East will continue. These adjustments in foreign policy may affect the performance of defense stocks, but overall, they could bring a more stable environment to the market.

The Potential Impact of a Certain Candidate's Victory on the Cryptocurrency Market

1. Bitcoin may lead the breakthrough: Due to the deep association between Bitcoin and the candidate's image, along with previous statements supporting Bitcoin, such as the promise to include it in the national reserves and change the current regulatory authority's head, it is expected to be gradually realized after the candidate takes office. Considering that the candidate is known for "fulfilling campaign promises," Bitcoin may be the first to break new highs.

2. A certain cryptocurrency may seize opportunities: The political and business allies of the candidate have deep ties with a certain cryptocurrency, and it is expected that they will leverage the momentum of the election to help the coin return to market prominence.

3. A certain project may drive the DeFi ecosystem: A financial project supported by this candidate's family is likely to become a new focus in the market due to this opportunity. This will not only bring upward potential for the project but is also expected to promote the prosperity of the entire DeFi ecosystem, thereby driving up the price of Ethereum.

Although the current probability of this candidate winning is relatively high, the occurrence of "special" events during the election process cannot be ignored. According to the latest data from a certain prediction market, the support rate for this candidate is 56.2%, down from last week's peak of 65%, and the election remains tight. If another candidate ultimately wins, market expectations will be broken, which could lead to a significant reversal.

The Potential Impact of Another Candidate's Victory on Traditional Financial Markets

1. Tax Policy: Advocates for increasing taxes on the wealthy and large corporations, planning to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 35%, and raising funds for the treasury through taxes on financial transactions, among other means. These policies may affect the overall profitability of businesses, but they will benefit sectors that gain from fiscal measures.

2. Fiscal expenditure: Supporting the universal healthcare plan, expanding social welfare spending, and promoting the development of the "care economy"; these policies will drive related sectors such as healthcare and social services. At the same time, a large-scale climate plan is proposed, which will significantly benefit the new energy industry.

3. Overall market trend: After the market expectations are disrupted, the stock market may experience significant fluctuations. Before the new government policies become clearer and investors readjust their expectations, the market needs time to find a new direction.

The Potential Impact of Another Candidate's Victory on the Cryptocurrency Market

1. Regulatory Situation: The current government's strong regulatory approach may continue. Regulatory agencies' policies are likely to maintain a tough stance, and the overall enforcement intensity is expected to remain unchanged, which will impact the institutionalization process of cryptocurrencies.

2. Market Direction: As the current market has already priced in the victory of a certain candidate, if the expectations fall short, Bitcoin may face a significant correction. According to a certain research institution's prediction, it may drop by 10% by the end of the year. The market needs to establish a new valuation logic.

3. Delaying Institutional Entry: The candidate's attitude towards cryptocurrency is somewhat vague. Although they express support for the development of digital assets to maintain America's competitiveness, they lack specific policy details. This uncertainty may affect investor confidence and delay the pace of institutional entry.

The U.S. presidential election is in full swing, and every statement from the two candidates is stirring the nerves of the market. Regardless of the outcome, investors need to stay clear-headed, pay attention to the implementation of policies and changes in market expectations, reasonably grasp opportunities while ensuring risk control, and avoid being overly influenced by short-term market sentiments.