Bitcoin Halving One Year Anniversary: Market Trends Show New Characteristics

Bitcoin has been a year since the last Halving event, and this cycle is showing a distinctly different trend compared to the past. In contrast to the explosive increases seen after previous Halvings, this time the Bitcoin increase is relatively moderate, having risen only 31%. In comparison, the last cycle saw an increase of as much as 436% during the same period.

At the same time, long-term holder indicators (such as the MVRV ratio) show a sharp decline in unrealized profits, indicating that the market is maturing and the upside potential is being compressed. Overall, these changes suggest that Bitcoin may be entering a new phase characterized not by parabolic peaks but rather by more gradual growth driven by institutions.

The Uniqueness of This Bitcoin Cycle

The development trajectory of this round of Bitcoin cycle is significantly different from the past, which may indicate a shift in the market's reaction to the Halving event.

In the early cycles (especially from 2012 to 2016, and from 2016 to 2020), Bitcoin typically experiences strong upward trends during this phase. The period following the Halving is often accompanied by strong bullish momentum and parabolic price movements, mainly due to retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.

However, the current cycle shows a different trend. The price did not accelerate after the Halving, but began to soar early in October and December 2024, then consolidated in January 2025, followed by a correction in late February.

This behavior of rising in the early stages is completely different from historical patterns, where Halving usually acts as a catalyst for significant increases.

There are various factors that have contributed to this shift. Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset driven by retail investors; it is increasingly being viewed as a mature financial instrument. The participation of institutional investors is rising, coupled with macroeconomic pressures and changes in market structure, leading to a more cautious and complex market response.

Another obvious sign of this evolution is that the intensity of each cycle is weakening. With the growth of Bitcoin's market capitalization, the explosive growth seen in the early years is becoming increasingly difficult to replicate. For example, in the cycle from 2020 to 2024, Bitcoin rose by 436% a year after the Halving. In contrast, the growth during this cycle in the same time frame was only 31%, which is much more moderate.

This shift may indicate that Bitcoin is entering a new chapter characterized by reduced volatility and more stable long-term growth. Halving may no longer be the main driver, with other factors such as interest rates, liquidity, and institutional funds playing a larger role.

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that previous cycles have also gone through periods of consolidation and retracement before resuming an upward trend. Although this phase may feel relatively slow or lack excitement, it may still represent a healthy adjustment before the next round of increases.

In other words, this cycle may continue to deviate from historical patterns. It may not experience a dramatic top bubble burst, but rather present a more sustained and structurally sound upward trend, driven more by fundamentals than by speculation.

Long-term Holder MVRV Ratio Reveals Market Maturity

The market value of long-term holders (LTH) and the MVRV ratio have always been reliable indicators of unrealized profits. It shows the profits that long-term investors have made before they start to sell. However, over time, this value is declining.

During the cycle from 2016 to 2020, the LTH MVRV ratio peaked at 35.8, indicating substantial unrealized profits and a clear top forming. By the cycle from 2020 to 2024, this peak sharply declined to 12.2, even though the Bitcoin price reached an all-time high at that time.

In this cycle, the highest value of the LTH MVRV ratio so far has only been 4.35, a significant decrease. This indicates that the profits obtained by long-term holders are far lower than in previous cycles, despite the substantial rise in Bitcoin prices. This trend is evident: the multiples of returns in each cycle are declining.

The explosive upside potential of Bitcoin is being compressed as the market matures.

This is not a coincidence. As the market matures, explosive profits are naturally harder to achieve. The era of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading, replaced by more moderate or stable growth.

The continuously growing market size means that exponentially more capital is needed to significantly drive up prices.

However, this does not confirm that the current cycle has peaked. Previous cycles typically include long periods of consolidation or slight retracement phases before reaching new highs.

As institutional investors play an increasingly important role, the accumulation phase may last longer. Therefore, the sell-off of peak profits may not be as sudden as in earlier cycles.

However, if the trend of the MVRV ratio peak decline continues, it may reinforce the view that Bitcoin is transitioning from a frenzied, cyclical surge to a more moderate but structured growth pattern.

The most intense price increases may have already passed, especially for investors who entered the market later in the cycle.