Web3 Market Trends and Hot Project Analysis

1. Market Highlights

1. Macroeconomic Environment

Goldman Sachs recently adjusted its forecast for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, lowering the expected cut from 100 basis points to 75 basis points this year. The report pointed out that market concerns about a rebound in core inflation have been exaggerated. Data shows that core Personal Consumption Expenditures ( PCE ) inflation had an annualized increase of 2.5% from September to November last year, slightly higher than the 2.3% in the previous three months, but still below the year-on-year increase of 2.8%, indicating a continuing trend of inflation retreating.

The revised data from the Dallas Fed further supports this view, showing that the annualized PCE inflation from September to November last year was 2.4%, with the inflation rate falling to 1.8% in November. Meanwhile, the labor market is gradually tightening, with the annual wage growth rate slowing to 3.9%, within the range of 3.5% to 4%. Analysts believe that if productivity growth remains between 1.5% and 2% in the coming years, it will align with the 2% inflation target.

2. Changes in Cryptocurrency Taxation Policies

The IRS announced that the implementation of cryptocurrency tax reporting rules will be postponed until December 31, 2025. This decision aims to give brokers more time to address legal and regulatory challenges. At the same time, the IRS has also issued a temporary relief measure, which is expected to benefit cryptocurrency holders on centralized finance trading platforms in 2025.

The new regulation requires the adoption of the First In, First Out ( FIFO ) accounting method for crypto assets starting from January 1, 2025, unless the Highest In, First Out ( HIFO ) or Specific Identification ( Spec ID ) methods are chosen. This policy change will have a significant impact on tax planning for cryptocurrency investors.

2. Hot Events

1. Syria considers a Bitcoin-based banking system

A Syrian non-governmental organization has proposed an innovative proposal calling for the new government to consider establishing a banking system based on the Bitcoin network and related technologies. The Syrian Center for Economic Research ( SCER ) believes that such a system is crucial for accelerating national reconstruction and protecting the population from the impacts of inflation and currency devaluation.

The proposal titled "Syrian Bitcoin Policy" aims to provide new solutions for countries facing economic difficulties. SCER emphasizes that the government should establish a comprehensive regulatory framework to legalize the trading and mining of Bitcoin and other digital assets, thereby promoting the recovery of the Syrian economy. Additionally, the proposal suggests digitizing the Syrian pound and considering support with assets including the US dollar and Bitcoin.

2. Ethereum News Weekly Ceases Operations

Ethereum Weekly News ( WiE ) founder Evan Van Ness announced that WiE will officially cease operations on January 1, 2025. This decision stems from communication with the leadership of the Ethereum Foundation ( EF ), which reflects a diminished recognition of WiE's value by the EF, providing only symbolic financial support in 2024.

Van Ness stated that although there was an opportunity to continue operations through fundraising, he preferred to focus on other meaningful projects. He pointed out that WiE failed to find a sustainable business model, and that advertising and sponsorship revenue were insufficient to maintain operations. Additionally, he emphasized the issues present in the Ethereum ecosystem, namely, an excessive focus on code development and research while neglecting other important contributions.

3. The Elon Musk name change incident triggered market fluctuations.

A few days ago, Elon Musk changed his account name to "Kekius Maximus" on social media platform X and used a PEPE frog as his profile picture, which has attracted widespread attention. This move has had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially for the KEKIUS token, which shares the same name as his new moniker, experiencing dramatic price fluctuations in a short period.

Although Musk did not directly mention his relationship with the KEKIUS token, his social media activities often have a strong impact on the cryptocurrency market. After he changed his name, the price of the KEKIUS token dropped fourfold from the previous day's peak level, showing that the market is extremely sensitive to his dynamics. This event once again highlights the importance of social media influence on the cryptocurrency market.

3. Hot Project Analysis

T3AI Project

T3AI is a DeFi network protocol that integrates AI, aimed at addressing the issues caused by over-collateralization in the DeFi ecosystem. The project introduces dedicated AI agents as trusted intermediaries, ensuring loan repayment through dynamic risk management algorithms, while allowing users to freely invest, trade, or stake on-chain for higher capital returns.

The token distribution of T3 is 90.5% for free circulation and 9.5% for development rewards and community activities. The project's revenue model includes taking 0.3% of the loans as revenue, with 80% used for buybacks. Additionally, 10% of the loans will be paid in T3AI tokens, while the remaining 90% will be paid in SOL or USDC.

It is worth noting that the project has recently experienced significant price fluctuations, and the development team conducted a certain scale of token sales in the early stages of the project to cover infrastructure costs. This practice has sparked discussions in the market about the long-term development and token value of the project.

4. Market Sector Analysis

According to the latest data, the performance of various sectors in the cryptocurrency market is mixed. AI-related projects continue to attract attention, while the DeFi and NFT sectors are also showing some activity. Specific data shows that there are significant differences in trading volume and market value changes among different sectors, reflecting investors' changing preferences for different types of crypto assets.

Overall, the market shows a sustained focus on innovative technologies and practical projects, while also reflecting investors' cautious attitude towards risks in the current economic environment. The future direction of the market will continue to be influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic policies, technological developments, and regulatory environments.