Crypto Assets Market Weekly Report

BTC and ETH Performance This Week

This week, the Crypto Assets market showed an overall fluctuating trend:

Bitcoin failed to follow the rise of the US stock market and other risk markets, instead experiencing a decline. The main reason is that the drop occurred during a period of weak liquidity last weekend, combined with the movement of BTC from a certain exchange address this week, which sparked market speculation that it might be preparing for a final payout, leading to a downturn in the market.

Ethereum followed the market and showed a downward trend, without independent performance, but the decline was smaller than Bitcoin. From the perspective of spot ETFs, funds are still flowing out, indicating that current investors have low interest in investing in Ethereum.

Important Events

1. Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for September

The market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in September, and the current focus of discussion is whether to cut by 25 or 50 basis points. Based on the economic data released in the United States this week, the market believes that the probability of a 25 basis point cut is higher, which is considered a conservative defensive rate cut.

2. U.S. Economic Data

Several U.S. economic data released this week, such as inflation expectations, CPI, and initial jobless claims, indicate that the U.S. economy is performing better than market expectations and remains resilient. This has reduced market expectations for a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

3. Geopolitical Situation

The situation in the Middle East has become tense again. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard attacked the U.S. military base in Lebanon, and the United States deployed an aircraft carrier strike group and nuclear submarines to the Middle East. Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russia, even leading to the risk of leaks at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, exacerbating the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine war.

4. Move BTC on a certain exchange

This Wednesday, a transaction worth $2 billion in BTC occurred at a certain exchange address, and the market generally believes this is a test behavior before its final compensation. This triggered a market downturn, but from another perspective, the risk that has been buried for 10 years is about to end.

Altcoin Market Overview

This week, the market sentiment index rose to 13%, which is higher than last week but still in the fear zone. The sentiment for Altcoins improved mainly because their performance was stronger than BTC and ETH, showing a rebound compared to last week. However, due to the lack of market hotspots and external influences, the competition between bulls and bears is intense, and the funds flowing into Altcoins are relatively low, making this rebound unsustainable.

The rise list does not show significant characteristics of sector concentration, with rising tokens scattered across L1s, NFTs, ETH-L2, DEX, and cross-chain tracks. This week's rebound is stronger than last week's, with several projects starting to catch up.

The overall rebound of Meme coins has exceeded last week, but their proportion in the top 50 by increase has decreased, and the rebound strength is generally less than that of other tracks.

In terms of social media popularity, L1s are the most关注. Most popular L1s projects performed better than BTC and ETH this week, but no special events occurred, possibly as a补涨 for last week's insufficient rebound.

In terms of weekly returns, the SocialFi sector performed the best, while the AI sector performed the worst. The SocialFi sector is mainly driven by TON, boosted by the positive impact of a certain trading platform launching the TON mining project. Most tokens in the AI sector had a sluggish performance this week, indicating a decrease in market attention and capital flow.

Important Events Next Week

• August 20: OORT Summit; a certain trading platform suspends services in Washington State.
• August 21: Devcom & Gamescon
• August 22: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week released; Coinfest Asia 2024; Terraform Labs bankruptcy case begins preliminary claims.

Market Outlook

1. Bitcoin: U.S. economic data improves, recession expectations ease, and the September interest rate cut expectation is adjusted to 25 basis points. However, global geopolitical instability increases, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate widely before the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates.

2. Ethereum: Spot ETF funds continue to flow out, indicating insufficient price attractiveness at present. It is expected to maintain a high correlation with Bitcoin and experience wide fluctuations.

3. Altcoin: Although it has been strong this week, it lacks the momentum for a sustained rise. It is expected to end the rebound next week and fluctuate in sync with the overall market.