Crypto Market Weekly Report: Bitcoin Fluctuates Downward, Macroeconomic Factors Continue to Impact Market Trends

This week's opening price for Bitcoin was $97,676.53, and the closing price was $96,475.82, a drop of 1.23% for the week. The maximum fluctuation reached 11.69%, once again challenging the range of $90,000 to $108,000, but trading volume has shrunk.

Affected by North American trade tariff policies, Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop on Monday but quickly rebounded. It then continued to fluctuate at low levels, highlighting its characteristics as a risk asset rather than that of digital gold.

Last weekend and this Monday, short contracts pressured Bitcoin, leading to the largest intraday volatility in recent times, with a volatility rate of up to 11.69%, marking the lowest point since mid-January at $91178.01. This intense fluctuation resulted in over $800 million in losses in the spot market, while losses in the contract market are expected to reach up to $10 billion.

After large-scale liquidation, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate around $97,000. Despite multiple macroeconomic adverse factors on Friday, the market has shown relative stability. However, it seems difficult for the market to recover and restart its upward trend relying solely on internal forces.

Currently, Bitcoin is still operating within the range of $89,000 to $110,000, with the price hovering near the second upward trend line, facing a directional choice in the short-term trend.

Macroeconomic and Financial Data

The North American trade tariffs were postponed at the last moment, allowing Bitcoin and U.S. stocks to recover their losses without much risk. However, the weekend brought a dual blow from economic and policy fronts.

The non-farm payroll data released on Friday sent mixed signals, causing market trading to become chaotic and making it difficult to determine a direction. Subsequently, the University of Michigan consumer survey showed that consumer confidence has dropped to a seven-month low due to heightened concerns about inflation. Additionally, there are reports that reciprocal tariff measures will be announced next week for several countries.

As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index fluctuated upward to 108.31, reflecting the market's renewed concerns over rising inflation and worsening expectations for interest rate hikes. The three major U.S. stock indices plunged during the session, with declines exceeding 1%, erasing the gains made throughout the week.

After a period of decline, influenced by expectations of a rebound in inflation, U.S. Treasury yields have rebounded. The 1-year Treasury has rebounded to 4.232%, and the 10-year has rebounded to 4.494%, approaching the high of 4.5% again, putting pressure on the equity market.

Fear of inflation and uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts have driven funds to actively go long on gold. This week, London gold achieved a six-week consecutive rise, reaching 2861.81 USD/ounce, with a weekly increase expanding to 2.18%.

Next week, the market will welcome the release of the US January CPI data. The Federal Reserve Chairman will attend the Senate Banking Committee hearing to deliver a testimony on the semiannual monetary policy report, and will subsequently attend the House Financial Services Committee hearing.

CPI data and the speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman at the hearing will be the main factors driving Bitcoin's trend next week.

Market Selling Pressure and Sell-off Situation

This week, long-term and short-term holders sold a total of 176,682,000 Bitcoins, which is a slight increase compared to last week, but still maintains a normal level, while the trading volume on exchanges has slightly shrunk during the same period.

The contract market has been severely impacted, with losses exceeding 10 billion dollars in open positions, making it the biggest victim of this week's volatile market.

The Flow of Funds between Stablecoins and Bitcoin Spot ETFs

Stablecoins, Bitcoin spot ETFs, and Ethereum spot ETFs saw inflows of a total of $5.662 billion this week, with $5.074 billion, $183 million, and $405 million respectively, maintaining a strong inflow momentum.

However, it is worth noting that the inflow scale of Bitcoin spot ETFs, directly converted into purchasing power, has declined for two consecutive weeks, which is also the fundamental reason for the weak performance of Bitcoin prices.

Cycle Indicators

According to relevant data, the Bitcoin cycle indicator is 0.625, indicating that the market is still in an upward phase.