The Transformation of the Crypto Assets Landscape under the New U.S. Policy

Introduction

In less than a month since the new president took office, many individuals from internal agencies to foreign leaders have already received termination notices. How should Crypto Assets play a key role and successfully advance in this grand drama over the next four years? Perhaps we should start by understanding this new leader.

1. The market likes surprises, but the rhythm must be controlled.

In this president's autobiography, "Controlling the Rhythm" and "Creating Surprises" form the core of his negotiation philosophy. The clever use of these two strategies not only established his early business empire but also set the tone for later political maneuvering.

Looking back at classic cases from his early years in business, he demonstrated absolute control over the negotiation pace starting with a hotel project in New York in 1976. When the city government demanded that he bear the costs of the subway station renovation, he created a sense of urgency by threatening to withdraw from negotiations, ultimately increasing the government subsidy from $40 million to $120 million. In a landmark building project in 1983, he took the delay tactic to the extreme: he suddenly sued the contractor for construction delays when the project was 90% complete, successfully compressing the project payment by 23%.

The 1985 Atlantic City casino acquisition case was the pinnacle of his "raid strategy". After 8 months of negotiations, when the seller was ready for the signing ceremony, he threw out a new requirement to assume $300 million in debt in the last 48 hours. This seemingly crazy move was actually a precise calculation: he knew that the other party had already invested huge legal costs, and bankruptcy of the project would lead to a collective debt chase by the banks. In the end, the seller was forced to accept the terms, and he completed the acquisition at a cost 40% below market price.

Recently, during a highly publicized bilateral meeting between the US and Ukraine, this leader once again demonstrated his usual negotiation tactics. First, he reached a four-point consensus with Russia before the talks, which included laying the groundwork for future cooperation. Then, during the discussions, he proposed a repayment demand of $500 billion and requested Ukraine to allocate 50% of the future profits from strategic resources into a US-led "Reconstruction Fund". The entire process left global viewers astounded and ultimately led to the breakdown of the negotiations.

From these cases, we can summarize the trading rules: 1. Set targets far above expectations, forcing opponents to accept suboptimal conditions; 2. Use all possible means to pressure opponents and maximize profits; 3. Be unpredictable, making it difficult for opponents to anticipate; 4. Make good use of media to amplify the impact of events. The way to respond to such strategies seems quite simple: refuse to trade, refuse to negotiate.

2. Crypto Assets Strategic Reserve

Shortly after the conclusion of the US-Ukraine talks, the leader announced on social media the inclusion of certain Crypto Assets into the "encryption strategic reserve." The market immediately welcomed a surge, with the prices of several major Crypto Assets significantly climbing. However, the reaction within the community to this move was markedly different from the past, with numerous conspiracy theories emerging.

This sudden announcement, although in line with its usual style, makes its true intentions difficult to gauge. Combined with its "trading rules", possible objectives include:

1. By proposing a variety of Crypto Assets reserves, it is essentially to make the United States accept at least the assurance that Bitcoin strategic reserves become a reality, thus attracting more countries to follow suit and maintain the United States' dominant position.

2. Utilize the presidential identity to continuously create momentum for the "strategic reserves" expectation and control market trends.

3. Strive for more influence and rights for the family in the Crypto Assets field.

4. The "White House Select" may be hiding a complex network of interests.

5. Seek funding sources through public pressure, such as requesting the confiscated Crypto Assets to be converted into strategic reserves or issuing related bonds.

6. There may be plans to promote the large-scale application of the selected public chain in various fields, making its tokens a necessity for accessing on-chain resources, thereby establishing the rationality of "material reserves."

3. Destructive Survival Strategies

The decision-making style of this leader is greatly influenced by his father, viewing interpersonal relationships as a "zero-sum game." This upbringing has shaped his competitive mentality of "demonizing" opponents, which is evident in both business and diplomatic fields.

In the field of Crypto Assets, although he is referred to as the "Crypto President", investors should be cautious, as his decisions may not always align with the interests of retail investors. The concepts of "America First" and "Family First" are likely to permeate his encryption policy:

1. Prioritize support for U.S. projects through ETFs and strategic reserves.
2. It may provide tax incentives for American projects while imposing taxes on unpopular projects.
3. Provide special "privileges" for family projects, such as regulatory sandboxes, targeted funding support, etc.

In the future, he may take more measures, such as suppressing output from non-U.S. mining pools to ensure that every Bitcoin is as "Made in America" as possible. Introducing regulatory interfaces at the protocol level, only projects that meet U.S. standards can thrive on the chain. The "Americanization" of Crypto Assets seems to have inevitably begun.

4. From Meme to Mainstream

Looking back at the 2021 Crypto Assets bull market, a well-known entrepreneur pushed a meme coin that was originally a satire of Bitcoin to new heights in terms of market value and actual significance. This token, which started as an internet joke, was initially developed by an engineer in just 3 hours, utilizing an infinite issuance mechanism that completely overturned the narrative of Bitcoin's scarcity.

However, driven by social media, this ancient meme has been revitalized. Through a series of promotions and practical applications, such as using it for payment in space projects, this once-sarcastic tool has temporarily become one of the top ten Crypto Assets by market capitalization, surpassing some traditional industry giants.

This phenomenon reflects that the crypto world is replaying the fate trajectory of the entities it once resisted. Bitcoin, once seen as a "blade against centralization," now seems to have become a new tool of power. The flow of funds closely follows changes in policy direction, shifting from mainstream coins to politically related coins, and then to the so-called "strategic reserves." The future of Crypto Assets appears to be increasingly influenced by centralized forces.

5. Opportunities and Challenges Coexist

Setting aside personal interests, the current situation has a mixed impact on the Crypto Assets industry. On one hand, support from the high levels will undoubtedly drive up the value of mainstream Crypto Assets like Bitcoin. On the other hand, heavy-handed intervention and strict regulation may stifle innovation.

As a well-known developer expressed concerns on social media, can this industry maintain its original intent when people view high-risk speculative behavior as the best application of Crypto Assets? In the next four years, so-called "best projects" may depend more on policy direction than on technological innovation.

The Crypto Assets industry faces the possibility of differentiation, potentially forming multiple camps such as traditionalists and American factions. The past competition among public chains may escalate into a larger scale confrontation. Driven by strong policies and significant influence, this game may become exceptionally intense. However, this may also be a necessary path for the Crypto Assets industry to break through its bottlenecks and achieve rebirth.