Trump's dinner causes TRUMP Token price to soar, is it a sincere invitation or another scheme?

Recently, news about Trump's "TRUMP DINNER" has drawn attention from the cryptocurrency market. It is reported that this dinner will take place on May 22 in Washington, inviting the top 220 holders of TRUMP tokens, with the top 25 holders receiving the opportunity for a private VIP meeting with Trump and a tour of the White House the next day. Trump himself will attend as a guest, and the event does not involve any fundraising.

The release of this news inevitably brings to mind the recent TRUMP token unlocking event. On April 18th, TRUMP unlocked 40 million tokens, worth approximately $300 million, accounting for 20% of the total circulation. In chronological order, the banquet immediately followed the unlocking, leading to speculation about whether this is a "thanksgiving banquet" or a "Huangmen banquet" with other intentions.

After the announcement, the price of TRUMP Token surged rapidly, reaching a peak of $14.37. As of the time of writing, TRUMP is quoted at $12.37, an increase of over 33%.

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Market Reaction and Investor Behavior

After the dinner news was released, the market experienced significant volatility. According to a certain monitoring platform, a large investor invested 5 million USDC to purchase 407,467 TRUMP at a price of $12.27. Subsequently, this investor sold all holdings for a total price of $5.73 million in less than half an hour, making a profit of $731,800.

Another long-term TRUMP liquidity provider withdrew liquidity from two wallets on the day the news was announced, obtaining 211,977 TRUMP (worth $2.76 million) and 18,376 SOL (also worth $2.76 million). Both wallets are currently among the top 220 holders and are expected to receive dinner invitations. It is worth noting that this investor purchased 332,424 TRUMP (worth $802,000) at a price of $2.41 on the day TRUMP was listed and provided liquidity. When the price of TRUMP peaked, the value of these tokens exceeded $24 million.

However, not all investors seized this opportunity. According to on-chain analyst reports, a TRUMP Token investor cleared their position about 20 hours before the positive news was released, making a profit of only $483,000. If they had held until after the news was released, theoretically, they could have achieved a profit of up to $4.28 million.

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The Future Trend of TRUMP Token

In the long term, the performance of the TRUMP Token has been disappointing. Although it once surged above $75 on its first day of issuance, it quickly fell back as investors discovered the token's high concentration and short exercise period. After its launch on January 17, the market capitalization briefly reached about $15 billion, but by January 20, it had plummeted by over 50%. Considering that 80% of the supply was allocated to founders and related entities controlled by Trump, whether the current market capitalization of $2.6 billion is reasonable remains a topic of debate.

Although Trump's event has stimulated trading volume in the short term, it is difficult for a single dinner to have a substantial long-term impact on coin prices. The current price increase is mainly the result of market speculation and Trump's personal influence. In the long run, unless TRUMP can effectively alleviate investors' concerns about token unlocking, it will be challenging to change its long-standing lackluster performance.

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Trump's NFT Strategy

It is worth noting that the official terms of TRUMP state that if Trump is unable to attend the dinner or the event is canceled, eligible TRUMP holders will receive a limited edition NFT as compensation. This arrangement could not only affect the TRUMP Token but may also bring new attention to Trump-themed NFTs.

In fact, Trump began to venture into the NFT space even before his campaign. On May 8, 2024, he hosted an NFT dinner in Florida, inviting buyers who purchased at least 47 "MugShot Edition" NFTs to attend. This series consists of 100,000 NFTs, priced at $99 each, and purchasing 47 (for $4,653) gives you the chance to dine with Trump.

Trump first issued NFTs in December 2022, launching 45,000 cards featuring images of him as a superhero, astronaut, western sheriff, and more. These NFTs were minted on Polygon, with the standard cards priced at $99. Customers who purchased 45 cards received an NFT dinner ticket. According to data, all 45,000 NFTs sold out in about 12 hours.

In April 2023, the Trump team launched the second series of digital trading cards, maintaining a price of $99 each, and sold out in 5 hours, generating $4.6 million in revenue.

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Conclusion

Trump seems to be operating both the TRUMP Token and NFT lines simultaneously. Whether these projects can maintain their popularity in the long term, the price increase and exposure in the short term have already achieved a certain effect. However, investors still need to be cautious and closely monitor market trends and project developments.