Crypto market weekly observation (06.30~07.06): The tariff conflict is nearing its end, and BTC is fluctuating at a high level, waiting for a breakout.

Author: 0xBrooker

This week, BTC opened at $108,386.44, closed at $109,217.98, up 0.77%, with a high of $110,590 and a low of $105,119.70, a volatility of 5.05%, and trading volume continues to shrink.

The past week has been relatively dull and uneventful. Macroeconomic events remain the decisive factor in the price movements of BTC, but there have been no changes beyond market expectations in employment data, the "Big and Beautiful Act," or the tariff war.

A prehistoric giant whale that has held a position of over 80,000 and has been silent for more than 14 years has started moving assets this week, creating a certain psychological pressure on the market. As the price of BTC approaches its historical high again, the trend of long-term holders reducing their holdings may reemerge.

Some positive changes are also occurring, as the activity of on-site funds has begun to increase after being silent for more than a month. This enhancement may resonate with off-site funds, driving BTC to initiate the fourth wave of this bull market.

Policies, Macroeconomic Finance and Economic Data

This Wednesday, major macro events are intertwined to influence the crypto market.

One reason is that the U.S. employment data exceeded expectations. Data released on July 3 showed that the U.S. unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, significantly lower than the expected 4.3% and also lower than the previous value of 4.2%. A closer look at the data reveals that although private sector jobs decreased, state government jobs surged. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the week of June 28 was 233,000, also lower than the expected 240,000 and the previous value. The latest employment data has alleviated market concerns about a recession in the U.S. economy and has also reduced the probability of an interest rate cut in July to 4.7%. Ultimately, the impact on the market has been relatively neutral.

The second point is that the U.S. President officially signed the "Big and Beautiful Act" on July 4, achieving the largest political gain of his term so far. The act includes large-scale tax cuts, significant increases in government spending, and budget cuts, which may reduce the credit of the dollar in the long run, increase debt, and decrease government revenue. However, in the short to medium term, it will undoubtedly have a significant stimulating effect on the economy. Therefore, although there is considerable public debate, the financial markets overall interpret it positively, directly driving the S&P 500 index to continue reaching new historical highs this week.

The third point is that the "reciprocal tariff war" has fully entered its third phase — Trump announced on July 5 that he has signed a "tariff letter" to 12 countries, which includes a fixed country-specific tax rate, with the final tax rate range adjusted to 10%–70%. The letter will be sent out on July 7. This tax rate is highly likely to take effect on August 1, bringing new uncertainties to global trade, inflation, and market sentiment. Because the maximum extent exceeds the expected 50%, the market reacted negatively, but due to the relatively adequate pricing, the degree of reaction was smaller.

In our observation framework, the current U.S. economy is characterized by a soft landing or no landing. Interest rate cuts will begin in September, and the "Large and Beautiful Act" will have a positive impact on the U.S. stock market in the medium to short term. The equal tariff impact is about to pass, thus allowing U.S. stocks to reach new historical highs again. In the medium to short term, under the expectation of interest rate cuts, the upward trend may be maintained. However, the current valuation of U.S. stocks is not low, so it is necessary to closely monitor changes in corporate profitability and the impact of tariffs on economic and employment data.

crypto market

Compared to the past few weeks, the BTC market has been relatively subdued this week due to the consistency of macro market information, but changes are brewing internally.

On July 2, BTC once again verified the "first bullish uptrend line", but spent most of the week operating around the $108,000 mark, making the third attempt at the historical high of $110,000 in 8 months.

The BTC retail market shows significant differentiation, with decreased enthusiasm for trading funds on the exchange, while on-chain activity and new address creation are performing modestly. However, the BTC Spot ETF market is experiencing vigorous trading and has recorded a continuous inflow of funds.

Currently, the price and trend of BTC are completely controlled by the funds in the BTC Spot ETF channel, and the correlation between BTC's trend and the NASDAQ has increased to 0.94.

Some variables may be occurring, with the on-chain lending rates rebounding after falling to a low level, and the 30-day average premium rate in the contract market also starting to rebound after hitting a low. Of course, both need to be observed for their sustainability. In the June monthly report, we judged that the market would rise again in the third quarter. If the BTC Spot ETF channel continues to see inflows, and on-chain funds begin to resonate with long positions, then the fourth wave of increases may be realized soon.

Fund In and Out

After a significant rebound in April and May, the inflow of funds has shown differentiation, with the capital in the stablecoin channel starting to weaken, while the funds in the BTC Spot ETF channel remain relatively strong and stable.

This week, the capital inflow into the BTC Spot ETF channel was $790 million, which is a significant decrease from last week, but still maintains a high level.

Cryptocurrency Market Capital Inflow Statistics (Weekly)

Stablecoin inflows reached $1.574 billion, close to last week.

Selling Pressure and Sell-off

As the price challenges 110,000 USD again, it seems that long positions are starting to reduce their holdings once more.

From the perspective of the scale of inflows into the exchange, the total selling scale of both long and short positions has continued to shrink this week, providing strong support for the upward movement of BTC prices.

However, this week, an ancient wallet containing over 80,000 BTC experienced unusual activity. The significant movement of this dormant wallet, which had been inactive for 14 years, has greatly increased its on-chain realizable value.

On-chain Value Realization Statistics

Given the current trend, once BTC breaks through $110,000 and initiates the fourth wave of upward movement, the selling of long-held and older BTC is expected to restart. These sell-offs will work alongside buying power to discover a new price for BTC and determine its peak.

Cycle Indicator

According to eMerge Engine, the EMC BTC Cycle Metrics indicator is 0.625, in an upward phase.