Big Beautiful Bill of Trump Passed: What Will the Future of Bitcoin Be?

After weeks of intense debate and political maneuvering, Donald Trump's $4.5 trillion tax and spending package, known as the "Big Beautiful Bill", has been passed by both chambers of Congress. The bill was approved by the Senate on July 1 with a narrow vote of 51-50 and was passed by the House on July 3 with a narrow vote of 218-214. The bill is now being sent to President Trump's desk for signing, expected by the end of today, July 4. What is in the Big Beautiful Bill? The GENIUS Act The bill encompasses key elements in Trump’s second term agenda. It permanently extends most of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, increases funding for border security, defense, and energy production, and enacts significant cuts to Medicaid and nutrition programs like SNAP. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will add approximately $3.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade, although Republicans contest these projections. A noteworthy content is the GENIUS Act – "Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for the United States Stablecoin". The provisions regarding stablecoins create the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring:

• 1:1 reserve backed by dollars, treasury bonds, or similar high-quality assets,
• regularly disclose public information and conduct annual audits,
• strict compliance with AML/KYC and oversight is divided between federal and state regulatory agencies. Basically, the GENIUS Act aims to protect the dominance of the dollar, provide regulatory clarity for digital finance, and facilitate faster and cheaper payments. "When the GENIUS Act becomes law, businesses of all sizes and people across the United States will be able to make payments almost instantly, rather than having to wait days or sometimes even weeks. Simply put, stablecoins are a game-changing development that can bring our payment system into the 21st century," said Republican Senator Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, the chief sponsor and co-author of the GENIUS Act. Bitcoin Outlook – Analyst Perspectives and Possible Scenarios Market experts are divided on the impact of the bill on cryptocurrency. The GENIUS Act is seen as reinforcing legal frameworks that bolster confidence in the US dollar and traditional financial systems. By applying stricter rules to stablecoins, the bill could reduce the volatility of the cryptocurrency market and the systemic risks associated with unsupported digital assets. However, according to some opinions, this legislation is undermining stablecoin issuers and making them unable to compete with "legacy system products." But there are many other factors as well. With the Big Beautiful Bill now having become law, the cryptocurrency market faces a complex interplay of potential outcomes. Below is a general overview of what may happen. Bitcoin serves as a hedge against inflation. The passage of this bill significantly adds to the national deficit, raising concerns about prolonged inflation, which could drive demand for Bitcoin as a "digital gold" hedge against the depreciation of fiat currency. Mixed reaction of the short-term market Despite financial stimulus measures, historical data shows that the increase in the U.S. debt ceiling has not consistently led to rising Bitcoin prices. Cointelegraph emphasizes that Bitcoin's price remained stable after previous debt ceiling increases, suggesting that the market may have already priced in these developments. There are no tax incentives to promote the adoption of cryptocurrency. Unfortunately, the Big Beautiful Bill has been passed without any cryptocurrency tax cuts or comprehensive cryptocurrency tax reform, despite strong lobbying efforts and proposals such as Senator Cynthia Lummis's cryptocurrency tax amendment. This leaves cryptocurrency users continuing to face complexity and uncertainty regarding taxes. Risk from interest rate hikes Expanding deficits could push interest rates higher, making riskier assets like cryptocurrencies less attractive. This move could dampen long-term enthusiasm in the cryptocurrency market despite initial gains. Management prospects Although the bill does not directly regulate cryptocurrencies, the upcoming sessions of the National Assembly (The cryptocurrency week starting from July 14, 7) will consider related laws such as the GENIUS Act, which may further shape the regulatory environment. In summary, the cryptocurrency market may see short-term boosts from tax incentives and inflation concerns but faces hurdles from financial worries and the potential for regulatory tightening. The changing policy landscape will be crucial to monitor in the coming months.