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Everyone in the market is clear that the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data is becoming increasingly "unreliable," but against the backdrop of many Federal Reserve (FED) officials, including Powell, emphasizing the importance of the "June data," many market participants have no choice but to place tonight's NFP among the top three on this week's global macro "event list"... This may be a true reflection of the current indecisive mindset of global equity, bond, and foreign exchange traders, especially in light of last night's surprisingly negative "small non-farm" ADP data! Many industry insiders indicate that investors are expected to closely follow this extremely rare "Thursday non-farm night" to assess the possibility of the Federal Reserve's earliest interest rate cut this month. If this June non-farm employment report, which is set to be released the day before the July 4th Independence Day holiday in the US, shows weakness, it could open the door for the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts at its meeting later this month. Although the market currently believes the likelihood of a rate cut in July is still low, many Federal Reserve policymakers also tend to adopt a wait-and-see approach, but at least two Federal Reserve Board of Governors members—Waller and Bowman—have recently expressed an open attitude towards this.

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