Alts hibernation? The Middle East war extinguishes the enthusiasm of the crypto market.

As Israel's rockets pierced the night sky, the distant Crypto Assets market shuddered in response. We watched as ETH was about to "hold its head high" and surge upward, but with a gunshot in the Middle East, it suddenly "deflated" and fell back down weakly. The small flame of revival for alts that had just been ignited seemed to be doused by a bucket of ice water, leaving the market only with a sigh of disappointment.

The price trend of ETH has seemingly become the "heart rate monitor" for the entire altcoin army. If it cannot truly break through and secure a strong position, those eagerly waiting altcoin siblings will likely have to continue their long-awaited collective carnival season—the altcoin season—in hibernation in the ice cellar. Don’t be quick to declare the altcoin season as "dead"; it is more like being temporarily "asleep" due to the cold winds of geopolitical tensions. The once optimistic expectations are now shrouded in a layer of harsh reality.

The Pulse of Alts: Data Doesn't Lie, Patience is the Cure

In the face of a bewildering market, instead of being anxious, it is better to calm down and listen to the "pulse" of the market. Simplifying complexity and having a clear strategy can penetrate the fog; abandoning emotions and making rational decisions can help navigate through the bulls and bears; closely monitoring data, subtle changes often hide secrets.

The Altcoin Season Index is like an ancient and precise "encryption thermometer." When it slowly slides down to the 15-20 range, historical experience tells us that it often resembles a spring being compressed to its limit, indicating a strong rebound is imminent. The support formed by the index in this area is like the warm currents beneath the hibernating alts' soil, patiently lying in wait for a more vigorous emergence.

Of course, support levels are by no means a magical switch that turns stone into gold. The road to reversal is winding and long, and it is certainly not evenly distributed. The clear signal is: as long as Bitcoin, the "anchor of stability," can stand tall above the $100,000 peak while avoiding destructive new "black swans," then some vibrant alts will eventually welcome their moment to shine, and their brilliance may even overshadow the glory of Bitcoin.

Altcoins are fierce: FOMO and the cliff are just a step away.

Once altcoins awaken, their surge can be so rapid that it makes one's blood race, with FOMO (fear of missing out) spreading like wildfire. However, their fall can also be shocking — in the depths of a bear market, a 90% drop is not uncommon, and the tragedy of going to zero occurs frequently. Currently, the on-chain altcoin market feels more like a crisis-ridden "arena" for retail investors, rather than a paradise filled with gold.

If you are determined to enter the "gold rush", be sure to keep your eyes wide open: only those ecosystems with resilient vitality, only those projects whose value logic you can truly understand, are worth betting on for the future. Be wary of extravagant recommendations, and do not get caught in a "long-term relationship" with projects that have unclear prospects.

When the time enters the second half of the year, the core goal is extremely clear: to protect profits and settle for safety. The deeper the cycle goes, the more expensive the risk becomes. Unless you have a gambler's gene engraved in your bones, it is a wise choice to be steady. The market is always thundering, and only rational people can guard their granaries.

The smoke of war in the Middle East has not yet dissipated, and every violent breath of the market affects the fate of countless wallets. Alts are like a group of dormant cubs, and the strength of ETH is the key signal for their awakening. Historical indicators suggest that a rebound is inevitable, but only when Bitcoin firmly sits on the throne of $100,000 will the spring of alts truly arrive. As the market gasps in the crevice between war and data, the only thing investors can do is to guard their existing profits like protecting a spark—after all, only those who survive under the bear's claws are qualified to wait for the next dawn.