Kalshi assesses the probability of an economic recession in America in 2025 exceeding 61%.

Traders on the Kalshi prediction platform currently estimate the probability of the US entering a recession in 2025 at 61%, after President Donald Trump signed a large-scale tariff order on April 2.

Kalshi uses the standard definition of recession, which is negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

The predicted recession rate on Kalshi has nearly doubled since March 20 and is now comparable to the figures from the prediction platform Polymarket, where traders are also betting on a 60% chance of a recession in 2025.

The probability of an economic downturn in the United States in 2025 is up to 60% on the prediction market Kalshi. Source: kalshi## Economic outlook for 2025 deteriorating rapidly

The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 has become bleak after President Trump announced a comprehensive tariff order, leading to a wave of sell-offs in the financial markets and raising concerns about a prolonged bear market cycle.

According to the new executive order, all countries will be subjected to a basic tax rate of 10%, along with various "reciprocal" tax rates applied to trade partners that maintain import taxes on U.S. goods.

Trump's announcement immediately triggered a wave of sell-offs in the stock market, wiping out more than $5 trillion in market value in just a few days.

Concerns about a recession continue to rise as experts warn that a prolonged trade war could negatively impact the global market, while also weighing down the prices of risky assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Despite the negative reactions from the market, President Trump remains confident that the new tax policy will strengthen the U.S. economy in the long term and help adjust trade imbalances.

"The market will explode again," Trump stated on April 3, suggesting that the current sell-off is just a necessary adjustment.

Pompliano: Trump is intentionally causing the market to crash to lower interest rates

Analyst Anthony Pompliano recently speculated that President Trump intentionally caused the market to crash in order to put pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates.

He cited the sharp decline in the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, from about 4.66% in January 2025 to 4.00% on April 5, as evidence of the strategy to induce a recession to achieve monetary goals.

President Trump is also increasing pressure on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to push for a cut in short-term interest rates.

"This is the perfect time for Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates," Trump wrote on Truth Social on April 4.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do their own research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

• Wall Street evaporated thousands of billions of dollars in a single day, exceeding the market capitalization of crypto.
• The crypto market has the potential to hit bottom in June amid concerns over tariffs.
• Trump calls on the Fed Chairman to lower interest rates as the crypto market recovers.

Thach Sanh

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