Bitcoin Returns to Highs, alts Market Poised for Action

Recently, the price of Bitcoin has once again broken through the 90,000 USD mark. This upward trend is mainly driven by two factors: first, trade relations are tending to ease, with a senior official stating that the tariff stalemate is unsustainable, and the situation is expected to improve; second, strong calls for interest rate cuts from relevant parties have shaken market confidence in the dollar.

In this context, Bitcoin has demonstrated its safe-haven properties as "digital gold," showing a high correlation with physical gold. As market confidence returns and U.S. stocks rebound significantly, Bitcoin continues to rise, with a 12% increase over the past seven days.

It is worth noting that during this round of Bitcoin's rise, alts have not risen in sync. Currently, Bitcoin's market share has reached 64.2%, setting a new four-year high. Although the timing for a full recovery of alts is still unclear, we can gain insights into funding preferences and predict which coins may continue to be strong in the future by observing the alts that perform better than Bitcoin during periods of market volatility.

Recently strong-performing alts

By analyzing the tokens ranked in the top 100 by market capitalization, we found that several sectors are worth paying attention to, particularly those that have outperformed Bitcoin in the past seven days:

1. Artificial Intelligence (AI): Although the initial bubble has burst, with the continued development of Web2 AI, Web3 AI projects have undergone a round of reshuffling, and the valuations are relatively cheap. Projects with sound fundamentals may benefit during the upcoming altcoin season.

2. Public Chain (L1): Public coins have always been a relatively stable choice during the altcoin season. Unlike in 2021, investors now place greater importance on high-performance public chains that can deliver real-world applications.

3. Meme Coin: As a carrier of consensus and culture, meme coins have become a prominent trend in this cycle and are expected to continue existing. The leading meme coins of various public chains can be seen as public chain coins with leverage effects.

4. Decentralized Finance (DeFi): DeFi is one of the few tracks with a real business model. Leading DeFi protocols often have network effects, benefiting from increased trading volume, and supporting prices through token buyback mechanisms.

Conclusion: Pay attention to the changes in Bitcoin market share.

The true beginning of the altcoin season requires not only Bitcoin to continue reaching new highs but also an increase in risk appetite, with funds spreading from Bitcoin to other thematic tracks. Currently, Bitcoin's market share (BTC.D) remains high, only slightly dropping by 0.2%, indicating that we are still in the "funds concentrated in Bitcoin, market steadily growing" phase.

In the future, if Bitcoin can stabilize above $90,000, providing confidence support for the market, while BTC.D begins to decline significantly (for example, falling back to around 57%), it will mark the formal overflow of funds into the altcoin market, and the "rotation market" is expected to fully unfold.

The current stage is a critical period for observation, screening, and layout. Investors should closely monitor the trend of BTC.D, as it will provide important references for the activity level of the alts market.