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Bank of America: The market is following clues from the Bank of Japan regarding a possible interest rate hike in June or July this week.
On April 29, Shusuke Yamada, a foreign exchange/interest rate strategist at Bank of America Global Research, said in a research report that the focus of the market may be any hint given by the Bank of Japan at this week's meeting on a possible interest rate hike in June or July. Trump's announcement of tariffs "suddenly increased uncertainty about the BOJ's future policy." He noted that the current market expectation for the Bank of Japan's terminal rate is slightly above 0.75%, compared to the previous forecast of 1.25%, and the expected timing of the next rate hike has been postponed from June to the end of 2025. Given that speculative traders' JPY positioning has hit record highs and USD/JPY has stabilized during the London trading session, BofA sees risk biased in favor of a further rally in USD/JPY.