Ethereum market capitalization breaks $461 billion, surpassing the two major investment banks; analysts warn of peak cycle.

On July 20, ETH surged to $3,810, with a market capitalization reaching $461.49 billion (currently reported at $451.55 billion), surpassing the combined total of Goldman Sachs ($217.3 billion) and Bank of China ($237.9 billion). Analysts warn that the concentration of capital towards Mainstream Tokens indicates a peak; if ETH breaks through $4,000, $331 million in short positions will be liquidated.

Three Signals of Market Capitalization Leap

1. Financial Position: ETH market capitalization = 1.7 times (Goldman Sachs + Bank of China )

   

2. Institutional Adoption: RWA Tokenization/Stabilized Currency Settlement Promotes the Evolution of Currency Attributes

3. Cycle Position: ETH Dominance ( ETH.D ) rises, reappearing characteristics of the historical bull market's end.

Long and Short Game

Short Position Warning • Ran Neuner(Crypto Banter)： "Need to formulate an exit strategy, BTC and altcoins are approaching the top of the 4-year cycle" • Benjamin Cowen(Into the Cryptoverse): "Shanzhai coins/BTC underperform ETH/BTC, replicating the BTC.D peak pattern" • Daan Crypto Trades： "This month, 81% of the top 100 altcoins outperformed BTC, with the 90-day ratio dropping to 41%—some profits should be taken."

Long positions • Twitter KOL Ted: ETH breaks through $4000, liquidating $331 million in short positions. • On-chain settlement volume: $7.2 billion in a single day reached a historical high.

Key Data

• Altcoin Strength: 81% of the top 100 tokens outperformed BTC over the last 30 days (Retail FOMO peak)
• Capital sustainability: The 90-day outperformance ratio against BTC has decreased to 41% (capital durability weakened)
• Volatility Warning: ETH 30-day volatility 89% (approaching the 2021 cycle peak value)

Operation Strategy

1. Top confirmation: ETH.D > 22% + the proportion of altcoins outperforming BTC < 35%
2. Three Steps of Risk Control: • Reduce holdings of 30% of altcoins in the current price range of 3500-3800 USD • Breakthrough $4000 hedge 50% spot • Full position stop loss when breaking below $3200

Conclusion Ethereum's market capitalization has surpassed that of traditional investment banks, marking the completion of cryptocurrency mainstreaming, but capital concentration towards ETH/BTC is signaling the late stage of the cycle. When on-chain infrastructure expansion diverges from high volatility, investors need to balance institutional dividends with cyclical risks. History shows that when short position liquidations and analyst warnings coexist, maintaining strict position discipline is key to navigating through bull and bear markets.