China's Central Bank will launch "strong stimulus" measures as early as September, which may trigger a bull run in altcoins!

Recent market observations indicate that the stimulus policies of the Central Bank of China and the global investors' attitude towards economic recession may become key factors in determining whether the altcoin season will be initiated. With changes in Liquidity and risk appetite, the altcoin market may welcome a new round of breakthrough opportunities.

China's stimulus policy may become a catalyst for altcoins

During economic slowdowns, central banks around the world typically stimulate growth by lowering interest rates or providing special financing conditions, thereby increasing the money supply. Such an environment often favors risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.

According to a report by 21Shares in March 2025, the correlation between the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and global Liquidity is as high as 94%, even surpassing that of the S&P 500 index and gold.

The current distribution of M0 monetary base among major global economies is:

United States: $5.8 trillion

Eurozone: 5.4 trillion USD

China: $5.2 trillion

Japan: $4.4 trillion

China's GDP accounts for 19.5% of the global total. Even though the Federal Reserve's policies are in the media spotlight, China's monetary policy still has a significant impact on global capital flows.

China's economic data under pressure, calls for stimulus measures are rising

Latest data shows that China's retail sales in July decreased by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, fixed asset investment fell by 5.3% year-on-year, the largest decline since March 2020; industrial added value only increased by 0.4%, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate rose to 5.2%.

Bloomberg economists and several investment banks (including Nomura Securities and Deutsche Bank) predict that the People's Bank of China may "launch stronger stimulus measures as early as September."

If these policies are implemented, the additional liquidity may drive capital towards risk assets, including the altcoin market, and even have the opportunity to push its market value beyond historical highs.

Investor Attitudes Towards Recession Affect Market Trends

Despite the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey showing that 60% of Americans expect the unemployment rate to rise in the coming year, the market remains resilient. The S&P 500 index closed at a historic high, while the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds rebounded from 3.74% to 3.83%, indicating that investors' risk aversion sentiment is weakening.

As concerns about an economic recession intensify, investors typically turn to safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to a decline in yields. However, the current rebound indicates that there is still demand for risk assets, which provides favorable conditions for a rebound in the alts market.

Potential Trigger Conditions for Alts Season

If China introduces more large-scale stimulus policies and global investor concerns about recession continue to ease, market Liquidity may quickly flow back to the cryptocurrency space.

In this situation:

1. The market value of alts is expected to experience a comprehensive recovery;

2. Capital rotation may spread from Bitcoin to high Beta alts;

3. Historical highs may be broken through under the push of Liquidity.

Conclusion

The next step for alts is likely to depend on the stimulus力度 of the Central Bank of China and the risk appetite of global investors. If China launches large-scale Liquidity support policies in the autumn, and fears of a recession further cool down, the altcoin market may experience a long-awaited full explosion. For traders, the coming weeks will be a critical moment to observe changes in policy and market sentiment.