Is the Bitcoin supply reset signaling a bull run? On-chain data reveals new momentum for the market.

The Bitcoin (BTC) market has recently undergone structural changes, with both supply and demand being reshaped. Long-term holders have decreased, while short-term holders and new users have surged, with on-chain data and prices reaching new highs. Does this "mid-term reset" indicate the start of a new bull run? This article will take you deep into the analysis of Bitcoin's latest supply structure, on-chain momentum, and market trends.

Long and short term holder supply conversion, market structure reshaping

The latest data shows that the supply of BTC held by long-term holders (LTH) has dropped to 14.54 million coins, marking a one-month low. Meanwhile, the holdings of short-term holders (STH) have risen to 2.4 million coins, with an annual increase of 7.96%. This change indicates that Bitcoin is flowing from "long-term capital" to "new funds," significantly enhancing market activity. Historical experience suggests that when the proportion of short-term holders increases, market volatility and liquidity also rise, providing momentum for subsequent market trends.

on-chain new user rise, network activity hits a high

Bitcoin price surged 8.04% this month, breaking through the new high of $123,000. More notably, the 30-day moving average (30D SMA) of new on-chain wallet numbers has first surpassed the 365-day moving average (365D SMA), indicating a significant acceleration in the speed of new user entries. This signal often indicates a recovery in retail investor confidence and an accelerated influx of capital, accumulating energy for the bull run cycle.

Dormant supply reactivation, signs of institutional funds entering are evident

CryptoQuant data shows that, from 2024 to date, the number of BTC transfers from long-dormant wallets has significantly increased. In 2023, only about 59,000 BTC were reactivated, while in 2024, this surged to 255,000, with the first few months of 2025 reaching 214,000. The average size of each transaction also skyrocketed from 162 BTC to 1,011 BTC, reflecting active participation from institutional-level or large investors. In 2025, an average of about 30,700 BTC were reactivated each month, growing sixfold compared to the same period last year, indicating a significant increase in market liquidity.

Bull Run Indicator? Mid-term Reset Releases Positive Signals

Unlike previous cycles, this round of Bitcoin supply restructuring is not a profit-taking after reaching a peak, but rather a structural adjustment in the mid-term phase. The strength of short-term investors and new users is increasing, with on-chain activity continuing to rise, combined with institutional funds entering the market, forming the potential foundation for a new bull run. As long as demand continues to grow and supply pressure is digested, Bitcoin is expected to welcome greater rises after the mid-term reset.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is at a golden intersection of supply structure reshaping and user growth. On-chain data, capital flow, and price performance all release signs of a bull run. Investors should closely monitor the dynamics of long-term and short-term holders, trends of new on-chain users, and large capital flows to seize the main upward phase of the next market cycle.