Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC 30-day Average Funding Rate Decreases, Is a Breakthrough Coming?

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is currently still oscillating below the ATH of $112,000 and remains above the key support level of $105,000, despite the market experiencing bearish pressure multiple times. This tight trading range reflects the uncertainty in the market, but as long as the support level remains stable, the overall structure still leans towards bullish.

The changes in the macroeconomic background are intensifying, supporting the rise of Bitcoin

At the same time, the macroeconomic environment is changing rapidly. The U.S. Congress recently passed President Trump's "Big and Beautiful" bill, completing it ahead of the self-imposed deadline of July 4, marking the beginning of a new phase of fiscal stimulus, with a focus on tax cuts and massive spending. Coupled with strong employment reports, these factors could exacerbate inflation, a trend that has historically favored Bitcoin as a hedge against the devaluation of fiat currency.

Market Sentiment: Funding Rates Provide Key Insights

From a market sentiment perspective, the funding rate is an important reference indicator. According to data from well-known analyst On-Chain Mind, the 30-day average funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts is currently very low. This reflects a lack of excessive greed in the market, which often indicates a favorable situation for the continuation of bullish trends. Historically, phases of low funding rates usually precede significant rises, especially in the context of supportive macroeconomic conditions.

Bitcoin price is steadily rising: above key support level

Since the beginning of July, the price of Bitcoin has risen more than 3% and has held above the local low of $107,000, despite multiple attempts to press the price back down at the resistance level of $110,000. This sustained rise indicates support from market buying and ongoing bullish momentum, with BTC still oscillating below its ATH. The resistance level at $110,000 remains a key price ceiling, and once broken, analysts expect a strong rise, entering the price discovery phase.

Global economic and geopolitical uncertainties affect market sentiment

Currently, the market has digested a wave of macroeconomic and geopolitical changes. Global trade dynamics—including rising tariffs, export restrictions, and de-globalization trends—continue to affect market sentiment. However, compared to the extreme volatility seen earlier this year, the performance of Bitcoin and the US stock market has been more robust. This indicates that much of the market uncertainty has been priced in, thereby reducing the downside risk of risk assets like Bitcoin.

Technical Indicators: Funding Rate and Technical Chart Bullish

A key technical factor supporting bullish sentiment is the low level of the 30-day funding rate. This indicator reflects a neutral or cautiously optimistic sentiment in the market, contrasting sharply with the overheated bull market phases that usually lead to corrections. Such stable periods often lay the groundwork for explosive rises, especially when tightening supply meets strong demand in a risk-friendly macro environment. As BTC consolidates and sentiment approaches balance, a breakout may be imminent.

BTC is steadily consolidating, breaking through the $109,300 target clearly

The 4-hour chart shows that Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating within a narrow range, firmly holding above the key support level of $107,000 and testing the resistance level near $109,300. This price range has attempted to break through multiple times in June and early July but has not been successful. However, the bulls continue to defend higher lows, indicating market strength and paving the way for a potential breakout.

50, 100 and 200 day moving average support bullish structure

The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are closely aligned and gradually moving upwards, indicating that the current consolidation phase is likely to transition into a more directional trend. Trading volume remains low, and typically in such cases, prices can experience a surge in volatility as they approach key resistance levels.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

• Support Level: $103,600 (short-term key support level)
• Resistance Level: $109,300 (breakthrough resistance level)

Conclusion: The breakthrough may be imminent

In the current market environment, Bitcoin continues to maintain strength, with a solid support level and a low funding rate, indicating that the market is not overly optimistic, which may provide a foundation for further rises. Once the price breaks through $109,300, it could trigger a new wave of increase, entering the price discovery phase, and there is a chance to refresh the ATH.

(Source: NewsBTC)