Bitcoin (BTC) price prediction: The unexpected U.S. non-farm payrolls in June become a key catalyst for BTC to break through 200,000 USD.

According to a research report by 21Shares crypto assets strategist Matt Mena, the U.S. employment data for June exceeded expectations, creating a macro backdrop that could drive Bitcoin (BTC) to break the $200,000 barrier.

The U.S. Department of Labor announced that non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the market consensus expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%.

Mena wrote that the data indicates "the labor market is strong, but not overheating," and this combination supports the Federal Reserve's soft landing narrative.

Currently, the futures prices linked to the federal funds rate anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September policy meeting, while the CME FedWatch tool estimates the likelihood of this outcome to be around 75%.

In light of the inflation rate reaching 2.4%, Mena believes that, with increasing political pressure, the Federal Reserve "has reason to act," primarily due to President Donald Trump's call in a letter to restore the 1% interest rate.

Liquidity Channels and Market Reactions

Expectations of interest rate cuts are spreading to risk assets. Mena pointed out that the S&P 500 index futures "just touched a high around 6300 points," while Bitcoin's trading price on July 3 was between $108,000 and $110,000, and is currently "waiting for a catalyst."

As of the time of publication, the BTC price is $109,518.14, up nearly 1% in the past 24 hours.

Mena indicated that Bitcoin's share of the total market capitalization of crypto assets has fallen to 62%, a decrease of 3% in recent days. He believes this is an early sign of capital shifting towards altcoins.

He links this transformation to the greater liquidity prospects and progress in Congress on the market structure bill and the GENIUS Act, which could help reduce regulatory uncertainty and expand the participation of institutional investors.

The Road to 200,000 Dollars

Mena connects the series of data to a broader context, which could drive Bitcoin towards the $200,000 threshold.

He stated that stable yet non-inflationary job growth paved the way for the Federal Reserve to adopt accommodative policies, lower interest rates, and release liquidity.

Traditionally, new capital is first allocated to Bitcoin, followed by altcoins. He stated that in this order, "a path is forming" to surpass the peak of the previous cycle.

The strategist believes that the $200,000 mark is a "decisive breakout level" rather than a cycle top, adding that as Bitcoin establishes a new range, altcoins may perform well.