Is the Altcoin Pain About to End? The Downtrend of 1247 Days Indicates a Bottom is Near

According to cryptocurrency analyst @nobrainflip, the market capitalization ratio excluding the top 10 cryptocurrencies compared to Bitcoin is signaling a potential market bottom - marking the end of a downtrend lasting 1,247 days. Market sentiment: Too bad to continue bad? In a post on X, the analyst emphasized a classic market principle: "When everything is too good → the market peaks. When everything is too bad → the market hits the bottom." According to that logic, the prolonged pessimism surrounding altcoins could actually be a contrarian indicator signaling an impending change. The accompanying chart tracks the ratio of "Others/BTC" on a monthly timeframe. The chart shows that altcoin has been in a downtrend since the beginning of 2021, when the ratio last peaked. This latest cycle has now lasted over 1,200 days—longer than the two previous major altcoin corrections combined.

Historical patterns suggest a reversal Looking back at historical cycles: The 945-day adjustment period ended in 2020, before the altcoin experienced a strong price surge. A shorter downturn lasting 426 days occurred before another recovery. The current cycle has lasted 1.247 days and is still ongoing, with trading volumes significantly higher than in previous periods. This prolonged fall, combined with exhaustion sentiment and suppressed valuations, is laying the groundwork for a structurally significant bottom. The activation point can be close The cryptocurrency market often revolves around emotional extremes, and the lack of enthusiasm surrounding altcoins may indicate that such a moment is approaching. The post notes that market participants often need a "catalyst" to shift from selling to buying. With altcoins being unpopular and priced near historical lows compared to Bitcoin, that catalyst may soon emerge. While the timing of the market bottom remains speculative, historical ratio models and sentiment signals suggest that altcoins may be nearing the end of their long winter. A reversal could mark the beginning of the next rotation cycle—potentially favoring mid-cap and small-cap assets as capital diversifies beyond Bitcoin.