Global Economic Fluctuation and Crypto Market Outlook

Recent economic data released by the United States has raised market concerns about an economic recession, while also enhancing expectations for interest rate cuts. The non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, and the CPI data unexpectedly declined, all of which have contributed to rising market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. The latest remarks from the Federal Reserve Chairman also suggest that a rate cut cycle is about to begin, which would mark the first cut since March 2020.

Unlike last time, this interest rate cut is seen as a preventive rate cut aimed at guarding against potential economic risks. Historical data shows that preventive rate cuts usually do not trigger a bear market, but may instead lead to a bull market. Currently, the market generally expects the first rate cut to be 25 basis points.

The global stock market experienced significant fluctuations in August. The sharp decline in the Japanese stock market once triggered panic in global markets, but the market gradually stabilized and rebounded afterward. During this critical period, investor sentiment is relatively fragile, and any minor changes may lead to an excessive reaction.

The financial performance of tech giants has also become the market focus. Despite a certain company announcing better-than-expected financial results, the market reacted tepidly, reflecting investors' concerns about future growth prospects and the importance of macroeconomic factors in current investment decisions.

The crypto market is also affected by the global economic environment. Bitcoin's price has experienced fluctuations amid global asset volatility, but subsequently rebounded after signals of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Data shows that the number of large holding addresses has increased recently, indicating that some investors may be bottom-fishing or accumulating at the current price levels.

In comparison, Ethereum's performance is slightly weak, with its ETF experiencing continuous net outflows. Analysts believe this may be due to continued selling by certain large institutions. However, some viewpoints suggest that this selling could provide a good opportunity for building positions in the second half of the year.

Overall, the crypto market is currently closely linked to macroeconomic trends. The economic conditions in the United States will largely determine the short to medium-term trend of Bitcoin. The anticipated monetary easing policy may drive up the prices of fixed supply assets such as Bitcoin.

For investors, it is crucial to remain patient and operate cautiously in the current market environment. Meanwhile, paying attention to the trends of oversold assets such as Ethereum may present potential investment opportunities. With changes in global economic policies, the crypto market may usher in a new growth cycle, providing investors with potential entry points.