Can the Bitcoin treasury company survive the next Bear Market? MetaPlanet executives explain the survival rules of capital structure.

In the latest episode of the "What Bitcoin Did" podcast, MetaPlanet's Bitcoin Strategy Head Dylan LeClair pointed out that the survival capability of "Bitcoin treasury" companies in the future will depend on their asset-liability structure, capital scale, and resilience against Fluctuation, rather than pure belief. Taking Strategy company as an example, the financing innovation achieved through the variable interest rate perpetual preferred stock "Stretch" is seen by LeClair as an important leap for encryption finance towards the traditional fixed income market, and a key weapon to cope with Bear Market reshuffling.

Bitcoin Treasury Model Reaches the "Gradual-Explosive" Critical Point LeClair stated that Bitcoin's role as a company asset has gradually moved from an early marketing gimmick into the strategic discussions of corporate boards. He emphasized that the current industry has reached a critical point of "gradual then sudden," and that future corporate allocations to Bitcoin will not disappear but represent a "continuous struggle against gravity." This is especially true for companies whose stock prices are significantly higher than their net asset value (NAV), as any market correction could create immense pressure.

Market structure determines who can survive: it's not belief, but structural design LeClair pointed out that the nature of Bitcoin as a unified collateral, combined with the heterogeneity of the stock market, leads to a "winner-takes-all" pattern. Even if multiple companies have similar stock price premiums, financial scale will change everything. He cited the example that Strategy's 1.8x premium corresponds to an actual value of nearly $50 billion, while the total premiums of many new players are insignificant. He warned that in a Bear Market, companies lacking a robust debt structure will be the first to suffer.

High Leverage and Short-term Debt Will Become Risk Hotspots In the face of potential market corrections, LeClair suggests paying attention to the specific forms of company liabilities. He particularly points out that using debt secured by Bitcoin with a maturity date will create "NAV pressure" in a Bear Market. In contrast, MetaPlanet prefers perpetual preferred equity—although this type of instrument requires dividend payments, it does not impose repayment pressure, thus not forcing the sale of Bitcoin assets. He stated frankly: "We will not sell, this is key to a perpetual capital structure."

MetaPlanet Strategic Core: Maintain Flexibility and Capital Dry Powder LeClair stated that MetaPlanet currently has a Bitcoin collateral ratio of approximately 16.5 times, meaning that for every 1 dollar of debt, there are 16 dollars of Bitcoin assets. He emphasized that this is not a case of underutilization of capital, but rather a deliberate choice to maintain flexibility in order to cope with severe market fluctuations. "Can you withstand a 70% drop in a Bear Market? This is not only a financial issue but also a test of psychological resilience."

Convertible bonds are effective in the short term, while preferred stocks are a long-term solution LeClair expressed high praise for the financing structure of Strategy, especially for its latest issue of variable interest rate perpetual preferred stock "Stretch (STRC)". This tool aims to keep the stock price close to $100 by adjusting the dividend rate and issuance mechanism, avoiding the maturity risk of traditional bonds. He believes this is "a genius design of crypto financial engineering" that not only provides the company with pressure-free long-term funding but also creates stable income options for investors similar to cash equivalents.

Dual Purpose of Preferred Shares: Consolidate NAV, Attack Shorts LeClair emphasized that preferred shares are not only a risk management tool but can also be used for reverse operations during market fluctuations: when the NAV is under pressure, the company can use the proceeds from fundraising to repurchase common shares or increase its holdings in Bitcoin, countering the price arbitrage strategies of short sellers. He referred to this structure as the "MNAV defense mechanism," avoiding reliance on convertible bonds that trigger gamma neutral trading, thereby preserving the upward elasticity of the company's stock price.

The strategy has reached "escape velocity", making it difficult for other companies to catch up Currently, Strategy has reported holding approximately 629,000 BTC, far surpassing any competitors. LeClair stated that unless a large tech giant like Mark Zuckerberg makes a significant shift, almost no one can catch up to Saylor. He welcomes other companies transferring private Bitcoin assets to public companies, but believes that the "real watershed" for the industry has yet to come, and the true sorting will occur in the next round of Bear Market.

Bear Market is the touchstone for testing faith and structure LeClair stated that many current "Bitcoin treasury companies" are merely products of the hype before the Bear Market hits. He predicts that during the next deep market correction, the funding window will close, and leverage will come due, resulting in the elimination of companies that lack long-term funding and psychological resilience. He said: "The real test has yet to come... the market will ultimately distinguish between the 'adults' and the 'children.'"

Future Moat: Entering the Fixed Income Market to Attract Traditional Capital LeClair believes that for Bitcoin to truly "swallow the global financial system," it must penetrate traditional capital pools, especially the fixed income market. He points out that the preferred shares designed by Strategy have become "dollar-equivalent assets" and are expected to replace algorithmic stablecoins, serving as a bridge between encryption and mainstream finance.

Conclusion: The wave of Bitcoin treasury management is still in its early stages. Enterprises that can truly navigate through the bear market cycle must be built on a robust capital structure, free from maturity debt, and have management that adheres to a no-selling-coin belief. Financial engineering such as preferred shares will become key weapons for this new business model. For users in the encryption market, understanding the structure and strategies of these treasury companies will be a prerequisite to identifying the next Saylor-like legend.